Study On The Influence Of The Large-scal Grain-production Households' Risk Of Scal Management On Their Selections Of Management Scale

Recently,the rapid development of the new agricultural managers—large-scale grainproduction households,is not only conducive to the optimization of the agricultural production factor resource allocation,but also to promoting the modernization of agriculture and rural economic development.But now the bulk agricultural products market of China with high inventory,poor purchasing and storage,is dowturnted by the impact of the international market.And the cost of land leasing and hiring continues to rise in rural areas,the large-scale grain-production households' profit margins are squeezed and their scal management pressure is huge.In addition to the complex market environment and the impact of multiple natural disasters,the superposition of unstable macroeconomic policy enforcement effect,immature management methods and technology,difficult in cash flow and other risk factors has a greater impact on the scal management,which leads to the extremely unstable income,easily affecting the production decision-making behavior in the next production cycle of large-scale grain-production households.This paper analyzes the objective risk and its characteristics of the large-scale grain-production households in the process of scale management,and clarifies the mechanism and effect of risk on scal selection,in order to put forward targeted prevention or countermeasures for controlling the risk and increasing revenue.It's of great practical significance to promote the development of new agricultural managers healthily and sustainably and achieve the quality and efficiency of agriculture,ensuring the safety of national grain strategy.This study bases on 403 large-scale grain-production households in Anhui Province as the objectives,making a systematic and comprehensive combination and generalization of scale management risks and its impact on farmers' behavior.And bases on other relevant researches,it divids the scal management risk into systematic risk and non-systematic risk,then analyzes the mechanism of various types of risks on scal selection by employing the theory of farmer's economic behavior and the theory of risk effect.Through the investigation,the risk index is taken and the ordered logistic model is established for verifying the risk effect on the scal selection behavior.In view of the key risks,it puts forward the risk control opinions and guides the large-scale grain-production households to give full play to the advantages of resource allocation.At the same time,it makes reasonable arrangements for the scale of production and operate moderately.Results show that there are six types of risks in the scal management of large-scale grain-production households,including natural risk,market risk,policy risk,asset-specific risk,operational risk and financial risk.The scal selections decision-making of large-scalegrain-production households is affected by the pursuit of profit maximization from the rational farmers and the demand of production near the safety line to avoid the risk from the moral farmers.As the sensitivity to the loss is higher than that to the income,their decision-making behavior also reflects the complex social features of incomplete rationalization.The behavior of scal selection is mainly affected by the restricted effect of natural risk and market risk,that is,the greater the risk,the greater the willingness to maintain or reduce the scal,and vice versa,the more likely to expand the scale of operation.In addition,the asset-specific risk has a significant temptation effect on scale selection.Higher risk income is more likely to stimulate the enthusiasm,making the households more inclined to expand the scale of production.Policy risk shows its temptation effect,but not significant,which reflects that the large-scale grain-production households are over-optimistic about the policy expectations and their imperfect rational decision-making behavior characteristics.The temptation and restricted effect of the financial risk are not significant,which relates to the serious loss of the scal management,the large-scale grainproduction households are more likely to maintain or reduce the scal to avoid the loss between the determined income and uncertain risk.Based on the analysis above,the following suggestions can be put forward: the government should increase the support of farmland infrastructure construction and make full use of the media channels to release market information and early warning information,and ensure policy stability,continuity and implementation effect.The large-scale grainproduction households should strengthen the learning of technology and management methods,enhance the ability of risk identification and risk resistance,establish and improve the financial analysis system,making decisions rationally and operating moderately.In addition,the agricultural and technical departments should encourage social capital to invest in agricultural social services,accelerate the reform of agricultural loans and agricultural insurance system,and constantly improve all kinds of agricultural social service system,in order to ensure large-scale grain-production households to develop sustainably.