Emergency Material Demand Forecasting And Supply Strategy Simulation Under Earthquake Disaster

The frequent occurrence of earthquake disasters in China poses a serious threat to China's normal economic and social life.The emergency rescue activity under the earthquake disaster is a complex system engineering.It is a multi-level decision-making process,which involves all aspects of work.The effective supply of emergency materials occupies a very important position in meeting the demand rate and rescue satisfaction of the victims.Therefore,a smooth emergency supply system is needed to carry out post-disaster emergency rescue work,with a view to reducing casualties and improving disaster rescue efficiency.Based on the previous studies,this paper starts with the analysis of emergency supplies suply process,and forms the basic framework of the whole paper from three aspects:emergency material demand forecasting,emergency material suply strategy and emergency material supply capability evaluation.The research work is divided into the following three parts.The third chapter establishes the dynamic demand forecasting model of emergency materials based on grey-Markov chain Firstly,the gray death theory is used to predict the daily death toll and the number of injured,and the Markov chain model is used to optimize the prediction results in order to improve the forecast accuracy.Then,using the quantitative relationship between the number of deaths and the number of injured people and different emergency materials demand,and finally estimated the daily demand for different types of emergency materials at the disaster site by the example of the YAAN earthquake.The fourth chapter establishes a simulation mdel of emergency materials supply strategy based on system dynamics.The emergency material demand obtained in Chapter 3 is used as the input value of the system.Firstly,the key factors affecting the entire emergency material supply system are analyzed and determined.VENSIM PLE software is used to draw the causal relationship diagram and SD flow diagram of the system,and DYNAMO simulation language is used to constructed the equation system.Then,use the case data of the YAAN earthquake to test the authenticity of the initial value of the system,Three different supply strategies(continuous suply strategy,delivery cycle R=2 and delivery cycle R=4 supply strategy)are proposed,considering the influence of the dynamic transportation delay,information,delay,safety expected inventory and dynamic stochastic demand,the system is simulated and analyzed to obtain the supply strategy with the delivery cycle R=2 is most suitable for the dynamic disaster relief environment.The fifth chapter establishes the emergency material supply capacity evaluation model based on intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,evaluates the supply ability of the supply strategy of the delivery cycle R=2 which is most suitable for disaster relief environment obtained in Chapter 4,and embeds the intuitionistic fuzzy thought on the basic steps of AHP by constructing the supply capability index system,to evaluate the comprehensive ability of emergency supplies under the background of YAAN earthquake,in order to verify the conclusions drawn in Chapter 4.There are 20 figures,17 tables,and 63 references.