Comprehensive Evaluation And Clustering Analysis Of China's Foreign Debt Risks

With the implementation of reform and opening up,and coupled with the economic globalization,the external debt is becoming an important way to promote the economic development of developing countries,but the debt itself has a dual nature,so that it can promote economic development,but also has the potential to become the shackles of economic development.The last century after 90 s,China's foreign debt scale over expansion,unreasonable debt structure has become increasingly prominent,the index also started higher than the internationally recognized warning line,so how to objectively and accurately evaluate the risk of external debt of China is of great significance to promote our country economy to continue the healthy and stable development.In view of the duality of external debt,how to make full use of the positive role of external debt to enhance China's comprehensive national strength and international competitiveness,and can effectively prevent and avoid the risks,which has been the goal of the research by experts and scholars,so many scholars have used different methods to the foreign debt risk for early warning or comprehensive evaluation.At present,there are many comprehensive mature methods,such as AHP,entropy method,principal component analysis,factor analysis,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,P-S evaluation model,some evaluation methods which have been applied to the foreign debt risk assessment,such as principal component analysis and entropy method.The study of China's external debt risk mainly focuses on the comprehensive evaluation of the external debt risk.The factors that influence the external debt risk and the construction of the external debt risk evaluation system draw lessons from the existing research results both at home and abroad.First of all,this paper applies a comprehensive evaluation method based on entropy weight and AHP to evaluate China's external debt risk.This method has shown its advantages in different fields.Based on considering the scale,structure and repayment risk of debt,through the comprehensive evaluation method to make an empirical analysis of foreign debt risk in China.The results show that at present China's overall foreign debt risk is controllable,and the micro perspective,the scale of external debt in a reasonable range,debt repayment ability,but the structure of risk increasingly can not be ignored.Secondly,based on the overall grasp of China's external debt risk level,and with the help of the selected foreign debt risk system,by mining the mutual influence of the external debt risk situation of each year,we cluster the analysis of the 1987-2014 years' external debt risk by using spectral clustering method.This paper not only compares the spectral clustering results with the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the entropy weight method,but also combines the two methods.Cluster classification is given by spectral clustering,and then each category is assigned risk grade by means of comprehensive evaluation method of AHP and entropy weight.Finally,the risk of external debt is divided into three levels,namely,high risk,medium risk and low risk.