A Study On Demand Forecast And Replenishment Strategy For The Innovation Product In Semi Conductor Industry

According to the rule of semi conductor industry development currently,like Moore rule,integrated circuit device refers to be short life time product.As the customer need and demand changes more frequently and the price drops down fast,the margin of IC business is reduced more.In order to build new model to win the business,some manufacturers reconstruct supplier chain by merging.However,regarding some fabless middle and small size design house,innovation and releasing more competitive device to meet the need of market is solo way to win.On the other hand,accuracy of demand prediction and inventory control with scientific method is necessary tool to get to target.Therefore,based on collecting some study about market prediction,short life time product diffusion theory,inventory management and replenishment technology and surveying some data from shipping log,the alternation of optimization was proposed and the process was described in the paper.In the paper,a middle size design house and operation function were introduced and described in the paper.Normally,design house is fabless,so the whole supply chain of company was described,and the detailed operation was shown,including organization,job description,working flow,key performance Index and current business problem.Based on the shipping log and data,the key of problem was found out by team work of operation department.BASS forecast model with seasonal factor was introduced and proposed to be implemented for a middle size IC design house's forecasting process,MSE and MAPE were used to verify the effectiveness,in order to improve the accuracy of market demand and order.Meanwhile,the result of forecast was inputted into optimize inventory control and replenishment model,to verify the effectiveness of strategy.During the period,some QC tool was used to find the root cause,some optimization tool such as process reconstruction,simulation technology and Data analysis solver in Excel.Finally,after the effectiveness of strategy was verified,all implementing were done by standardizing and training.Additional,the further study of internet market and prediction and dynamic supplier chain management and inventory control were indicated at the end of paper.The whole study and project process provide an instance for some IC company for reference.