The Research On Methods Of Flu Epidemics Prediction And Implementation Of The Active Monitoring System

Influenza viruses cause large morbidity and mortality to humans.In recentyears,the outbreak of H1N1,H5N1,H7N9 and other influenza virus subtypes in multiple regions caused a great threat to public health.Traditionally,influenza surveillance network is used to monitor its epidemics.Besides,the traditional surveillance methods only cover the patients who go to the sentinel hospitals for treatment,In this thesis,we attempt to address the shortcomings of the traditional flu surveillance methods,which included the following works.Firstly,we attempt to predict the future influenza epidemics based on the Haosou Index,which were measured with the ratio of influenza-like illnesss(ILI).Three representative provinces(Beijing,Shanghai and Guangdong)in China were chosen in the study.Correlation analysis shows that the influenza epidemics correlated much t he Haosou Index in three provinces.Besides,moderate correlation was also observed between the current influenza epidemics and historial influenza epidemics.Therefore,we built the multiple linear regression models to predict the influenza epidemics base d on the Haosou Index and historial influenza epidemics.The models performed well in three provinces,with the Pearson Correlation Coefficient(PCC)between predicted and observed influenza epidemics ranging from 0.78 to 0.82.Further,the historial epidemics data was integrated into the models,which improved the models a little(0.13 ~ 0.19).Secondly,an active monitoring system was designed and implemented.RESTful Web Services were developed at National Influenza Center server to take the data of authoritative flu epidemic to the database in the system.And use the charts to intuitively display the data in front of the users.So that users can more clearly see the trend of the flu epidemic in 20 weeks.The software provided an interface for reporting the influenza cases,and the cases aretimely displayed in the map.The public can participate ininfluenza surveillance,so it is more comprehensive.Uers can see the influenza cases in the map intuitively,and it provides reference information for the user's tr avel and taking preventive measures.Besides,it could be useful for prevention and control of the influenza virus.