Research On The Influence Of Population Aging On China's Economic Development

The demographic transition brought about by rapid socio-economic development has presented unprecedented challenges to all countries.As a realistic representation of the imbalance of world population structure,the aging of population is irreversible.The scope and extent of its impact has been the same as the impact of industrialization,urbanization and other important social changes.As a member of the emerging markets,the dynamic change of China's economic development in the future is bound to be closely related to population,an important factor in the economy.At present,with the deepening of China's aging population,the effect of quantitative demographic dividend is fading.Especially after the turn of the century,a series of impacts brought by the increasingly distorted population structure are hard to avoid and cannot be ignored.Based on this background,to explore the relationship between population aging and China's economy,it is necessary to start from the research perspective of the impact of population age structure change on economic development.Firstly,to comb through exploring the theoretical basis for its effect,then through three different levels of transmission mechanism to understand how the aging population affects economic development,and finally this effect is measured by relevant econometric models,which will provide some help for further academic exploration on this issue and effective response to the aging problem in the future.Article using the data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2016,the real GDP per capita,aging population bring-up ratio,working population share,the birth rate,technology innovation ability,the average education years,savings rates,such as variable,using the expansion of the Cobb-Douglas production function model,based on the theoretical model,the static and dynamic two direction of empirical inquiry,sensitivity test,finally return to conclusions.Through research and analysis,it is found that in the short term,aging has a certain positive economic effect,but in the face of the rapid and aging society,the social dependency ratio will rise rapidly.In the long run,the negative impact on China's economy will be affected.It is far more than the positive effect it receives,that is,the empirical conclusion is basically consistent with the previous initial theoretical derivation.At present,the state is actively formulating relevantcountermeasures and taking measures to mitigate the continuous impact of demographic imbalance.Therefore,based on the theoretical and empirical results,this paper finally gives policy Suggestions from four aspects,including economic development mode,fertility policy,elderly industry,labor quality and quantity,and old-age security service system,in order to provide valuable reference.