The Impact Of Population Aging On China’s GDP And Its Components

The population aging has become the major trends in the world today; China is facing the challenge of population aging. The economic behavior of different age stages has a strong heterogeneity; the impacts on the economy are not the same. The strengthening of the trend of population aging is bound by a series of variables, and ultimately can affect the gross domestic product. Therefore, in this context, to study the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product is particularly important.China is the world’s most populous country, the relationship between population and gross domestic product has a crucial impact on China’s future development. In the1970s, China has implemented a two crucial policies related to population and economic growth: family planning policy; reform and opening up policy. The family planning policy sharply declined the number of newborns; reform and opening up policy rapidly promote China’s economy. At the same time, the improvement of the people’s living standards and medical conditions make the people live longer than before. But these two policies have brought the emergence of an aging population.This study can advance the understanding of the theory of the population aging and economic growth; deep and comprehensive understanding of the situation of China’s aging population; from an empirical point of view, using time series data and the2010cross-sectional data on31regions, analyzes the relationship between population aging and gross domestic product; considerations for the development of population aging and economic growth policies.The main variables of macroeconomics used to measure gross domestic product are consumption, saving, net exports and government purchase. First, determine the relationship of population aging and gross domestic product through the analysis of the population aging and gross domestic product value. Then studies the relationship between population aging and consumption, saving, net exports and government purchase respectively, it can further determine the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product, and provide the basis for the future development of appropriate policies.In this study, analysis result and estimation are more accurately by using micro and macro data. Based on the theoretical research and documentation, describes the saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase feature of China. Uses relatively cutting-edge research methods, processing endogenous lagged variable system-GMM, and uses stata11.0software to estimate the relationship between population aging and saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Uses Eviews6.0software to test the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product through time-series and cross-sectional data. Therefore ensures the scientific credibility of the research.This study passes through the following four steps:First, organizes theory and literature on the population aging, and provides theoretical support for further study and model support. Secondly, gives full description of China’s current population situation. From the change in the transition of the age structure; the change in the birth rate, mortality rate and natural growth rate; the change in the population dependency ratio; the old population growth rate situation; the total fertility status; the old population sex ratio; the old population regional differences, and the median age to analyze the situation of China’s population. Third, the empirical analysis the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product value, GMM estimation method analysis the relationship between the population aging and saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Give a comprehensive interpretation of the relationship between the China’s gross domestic product and the population aging. Finally, Based on the foregoing analysis, gives the suggestions to achieve economic growth in the context of population aging.Specifically, this study is divided into nine chapters:Chapter Ⅰ, Introduction. Research design and frame parts. Introduces the background, the purpose and necessity of this study; then describes the research objectives of this article and article structure, building the analytical framework of the article; then introduces research ideas and research methods used in this study, designing the technology roadmap; finally, elaborate the innovations and the existing inadequacies of the article.Chapter Ⅱ, related theoretical research and literature review. First, the basic theory expounded on the theory of economic growth and population studies. Followed by the related theoretical overview of the research focuses on the introduction of demographic factors, especially after the introduction of population aging factors, changes in economic growth model. Then from positive and negative impact of population aging, gives the literature review of the population aging and gross domestic product.Chapter Ⅲ, the analysis of China’s population aging situation. First introduces the basic concepts related to the population aging. Then describes the status of China’s population aging. And then construct the evaluation system of the impact of population aging on economic and social development. Then, based on the fifth census and the sixth census data, using the CPPS software predicts the situation of China’s population aging, forecasts the development trend of the Chinese population in2010-2050.Chapter Ⅳ, the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product. First applying1982-2010China’s population aging and gross domestic product data, using the unit root test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, error correction model, the standard deviation disturbance impact analysis and variance decomposition method does the time series analysis, highlights the time difference, to test the relationship between population aging and gross domestic product. Applying the inter-provincial cross-section data of31provinces in China in2010, using the different variance test, multiple linear regression analysis of and multicollinearity test methods, analyzes the cross-sectional data, highlights the spatial difference, to test the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product.Chapter Ⅴ, the relationship between the population aging and saving. First, elaborates the principle of the system GMM estimation, analyzes the background of the population aging and saving. Then builds the system GMM variable and the estimated model of the population aging and saving. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and household saving rate; and there is negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the household saving rate.Chapter Ⅵ, the relationship between population aging and consumption. First analyzes the status of the population aging and consumption, and elaborates the relevant literature. Then according to the characteristics of the population aging and consumption to select variables, builds the system GMM model. Concludes that there is a negative correlation between the population aging and economic growth. Then using the gray correlation degree analysis analyzes the population aging and the consumption structure. Concludes that different age structure gives different effects on the demand and industrial structure.Chapter Ⅶ, the relationship between the population aging and net exports. First elaborates the research background and the literature, selects relevant variables to construct the system GMM estimation model of the population aging and net exports, the model contains time dummy variables. In conclusion, there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the net exports, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the net exports. Chapter VIII, the relationship between the population aging and the government purchase. First, estimates the relationship between the population aging and the gross government purchase value. According to the characteristics of the population aging and the government purchase choices variables and builds the analysis model. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the gross government purchase value, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the gross government purchase value. Then estimates the relationship between the population aging and health care spending. According to the characteristics of the population aging and health care spending, selects the variables and constructs analysis model. Concludes that there is a positive correlation between the old dependency ratio and the health care spending, and there is a negative correlation between the old population growth rate and the health care spending.Chapter IX, suggestions and revelations. First based on the correlation test and estimation, gives reasonable and feasible suggestions for the relevant policies. Then summarizes the revelation of the population aging and gross domestic product relationship, correctly understanding and scientifically judging the relationship between the population aging and gross domestic product. Finally, elaborate the future research directions of this article.This study shows the following innovations:earlier use the data to explore the relationship of population aging and gross domestic product. On the macroeconomics point of view, GDP represented by the expenditure includes four areas:saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Discusses the relationship between population aging and the four aspects respectively. Build four conduction mechanism of saving, consumption, net exports and government purchase. Uses the system GMM Estimation treats the panel data. The system GMM estimation overcomes the shortcomings of the OLS and fixed effects analysis, and avoids endogenous model. Hansen test and serial correlation test ensures the reliability of the conclusions. In addition, an earlier study of the relationship between an population aging and government purchases. First, explore the population aging and the government purchase in gross value, on this basis, further study the relationship between population aging and government health spending value.However, due to grasp of the situation, the data collection, and private ability, the article has the following inadequacies:the data is not perfect, this article only gives the population aging and gross domestic product analysis of China’s31administrative districts, not includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions. Doing the GMM Estimation, selects a certain number of control variables, in order to make the model more accurate estimates. However, the control variables selected, although as far as possible the important control variables into the model, but also unable to achieve comprehensive selection. Although this will not have significant impact on the results of the study, but also should be improved. Current social conditions, higher demands on the old-age security system;4-2-1number of families increased, a higher demand for social welfare and security. These changes should be listed in the scope of the study, but this study does not make a further study.