Study On Spatial Pattern And Influencing Factors Of Population Shrinkage In Henan Province

Since the 1970 s,the shrinkage of population in many Western cities has gradually attracted the attention of academia.Along with an aging population,migration and spatial restructuring of the economy,more and more cities and regions in China have also begun to experience population shrinkage,which is becoming a challenge for sustainable urban and regional development.Population is an important resource for a country or a region's long-term development.Henan Province is one of the most populous provinces in the nation and one major exporter of migrant workers to coastal provinces and cities.Demographic changes will have great impacts on the economic development of the province.Using a variety of methods,including spatial autocorrelation analysis,ordinary least square models and field studies,this paper examines the spatiotemporal patters of population change in Henan Provinces at multiple geographic scales,with a focus on identifying counties that experienced population shrinkage.It further investigates the factors that influence a region's population dynamics.Through surveying some rural migrant works,the research also attempts to understand the factors that motivate people's work-related migration.This study revealed several findings:From 2000 to 2010,the population base of Henan Province increased significantly.But demographic changes vary significantly across regions,with the provincial capital,Zhengzhou,being the most attractive destination for migrants.Most “shrinking regions” were found in the eastern parts of the province.During this period,variables such as per capita GDP growth rate and the number of primary and secondary school students had a significant negative effect on population change,while the change in GDP of the tertiary industry and the GDP of the primary industry had a significant positive effect on regional population growth.Elderly dependency ratiohad a positive effect on the birth rate,whereas dependency ratio of the children and wage growth rate had a negative impact.GDP per capita in 2000 and the percentage of working-age people were positively associated with net population migration,but other variables,including employment in the primary industry,employment in the tertiary industry,and change in the number of medical beds per 10,000 people,were negatively associated with migration.During 2010-2016,the number of permanent residents kept increasing in Henan,but the increase was relatively smaller.Zhengzhou remained its status as the most attractive city.At the county level,the spatial pattern of population changes experienced noticeable shift,displaying a more visible east-west difference.Counties with shrinking population were mostly located in the peripheral areas of the province,displaying a “semi-circular” shape surrounding the province's most urbanized region centered in Zhengzhou.During this period,variables such as GDP per capita growth rate,urbanization rate and the tertiary industry among total GDP demonstrated a positive impact on population change,while the impact of the number of primary and secondary school students on population seemed to be negative and insignificant.GDP per capita growth rate was significantly associated with change in birth rate in a positive way,while dependency ratio of children and wage growth rate had a negative effect on birth rate.Among the potential influencing factors of migration,GDP per capita in 2010 and GDP growth rate during 2010-2016 appeared to have positive impacts,whereas other variables such as primary industry employment,and the number of medical beds per 10,000 people were negatively associated with net migration.The results of case studies show that rural migrants mainly went to work in coastal provinces such as Zhejiang,Jiangsu,and Guangdong,followed by Zhengzhou and then other cities within the province.Regional differences in economic development and employment opportunities were themain reason for migration.But compared to the past,the factors that influence migration decisions have diversified.Regional infrastructure,medical and educational resources are now often considered by migrants.Some respondents indicate that once there are job opportunities that fit them,they are willing to return to their home villages or hometowns.