Simulation Of Mixture Time-Varying Effect Model And Its’ Study On Profit Transfer Behavior Of Multinational Corporations

The rapid development of economic globalization makes the number of transnational corporations rise rapidly.In the past three decades,transnational corporations have become important participants in global trade and world economic development.From the perspective of transnational corporations,subsidiaries are distributed in different countries and regions,so it is possible for them to realize intra-company transactions,transfer profits,avoid taxes and risks,and strive for the maximization of group profits.But from the point of view of the local government tax,despite the presence of multinational companies on the local(especially the economic underdeveloped regions)have a certain role in promoting the economic development,but multinational companies to shift profits and a series of behavior would be to cause a certain degree of damage to the local tax system,so causedthe extensive concern of governments agencies and related functional departments and attention.Therefore,the identification and research of profit transfer behavior have profound theoretical and practical significance.This paper takes domestic transnational corporations as the research object,introduces MixTVEM,and combines with China’s tax reform system to identify and study the profit transfer behavior of domestic transnational corporations.Firstly,this paper introduces the background and significance of the research,summarizes the research status at home and abroad,and reveals the innovation of this paper.Secondly,the basic theory of the mixed time-varying effect model is expounded,the relevant definitions are introduced,and the validity of the model is verified by the simulated data.On this basis,data of 1,693 domestic transnational corporations were collected and sorted out.MixTVEM method was applied for empirical analysis to study the impact of tax rate and other influencing factors on the profit transfer behavior of transnational corporations.Finally,it analyzes the necessity and current situation of strengthening the supervision of profit transfer behavior in China,and puts forward the future research direction in combination with the current international economic form.