Research On The Demand For Compulsory Education Resources In Hunan Province

The gradual drop in fertility in China is accompanied by an increasingly prominent population problem.The relevant international agencies predict that the Chinese population will have a peak of 1.396 billion in 2026 and be reduced to 1.259 billion in the middle of the 21 st century.The proportion of the elderly will increase and the demographic dividend will subside.To this end,the Chinese government has successively introduced a separate two-child,comprehensive two-child policy.In 2014,Hunan Province began to implement the “separate two-child” policy.In 2016,it began implementing a policy that a couple could have two children.These policies are aimed at stimulating childbirth.The most direct manifestation is the change in the number of the newborn population.With the changes of it and the increase in the socio-economic level several years later,the demand for compulsory education resources will inevitably change.Therefore,it is an important task for establishing satisfactory education for the people to scientifically predict the trend of changes in the school age population at the compulsory education stage,to accurately grasping the demand for educational resources,and to enable the citizens to enjoy equal opportunities for compulsory education services.This paper chose the queue element method and constructs the Leslie model to forecast the school-age population,used the iterative code computation of Matlab software to calculate the future population,and referred to the average standard of all kinds of compulsory education resources to predict the future demand;In the fund forecasting process,considering the trend of economic development in Hunan Province in the future,an average student expenditure index was introduced,and the per capita GDP level in the future was forecasted.The result shows that the adjustment of the birth policy will affect the scale of the school-age population of compulsory education in Hunan in the coming years.The overall school-age population will still shrink in the future,but its trend will obviously slow.The future demand for educational resources such as human resources and material resources will decrease closely following the future school-age population,This means that the future allocation gap will narrow or even disappear,and resources will be allocated adequately.While the demand for financial resources will continue to increase under the influence of the economic development level,its spending gap is expanding.Therefore,this paper proposes to establish a scientific and reasonable management mechanism for predicting school-aged population;to pay more attention to improving the quality of teachers in compulsory education in the future allocation of teachers;to rationally plan the conditions for the deployment of compulsory education from the overall situation;to increase funding for compulsory education,enhance transfer payments and broaden funding sources.