Research On The Allocation Of Preschool Education Resources In Chongqing Based On Population Forecast

With the opening of the comprehensive two-child policy and the improvement of people's living standards,more and more people begin to care about the issue of their children attending kindergartens.According to the proposal submitted by the Presidium of the Third Session of the 13 th NPC to the NPC Education,Science,Culture and Health Committee for deliberation,the Law on Pre-school Education has been incorporated into the legislative plan of the current NPC Standing Committee and the legislative work plan for 2021.Facts show that,with the increase in the number of children,children into the kindergarten expensive,difficult to enter the kindergarten problem is more and more obvious,the state is also highly concerned about this phenomenon,preschool education research is also more and more.The state attaches great importance to the development of preschool education,and Chongqing has also responded positively.Based on the above research background,in order to better analyze the relationship between the number of population and preschool education resources and study the situation of preschool education in Chongqing,this paper will focus on comparison and prediction analysis.This study mainly adopts literature research method,comparative research method,content analysis method and statistical analysis method.Firstly,through a variety of database websites and libraries to collect the content of "preschool education",cluster analysis content,population forecast content and resource allocation content of the relevant research literature,to build the framework of this study.Analyze the situation of various resources of preschool education in Chongqing.Compare the situation of preschool education resources in Chongqing with that of the whole country,and the situation of preschool education resources in Chongqing with that of other provinces to predict the change of population and preschool education resources in Chongqing.The comparison is mainly a descriptive statistical comparison to compare the differences in preschool education resources between China and Chongqing.China provinces differences mainly selected school construction area of China(square metres/person),the school covers an area of China(square metres/person),books(copies/person),the average number of students for garden(people /),number all students(people/a)than(people/person)and the number of faculty and students as the classification index,and preschool education in China is selected in 2009 and 2019 as the data,Cluster analysis was performed for each province,and then the differences were analyzed.The prediction mainly refers to the correlation analysis of the population and the number of kindergartens,the number of teachers and staff,the area of the school district,the books,the number of people in the kindergarten and the number of classes,and the establishment of the regression equation.Logistic model,regression prediction model and population grey model GM(1,1)were used to predict the population of Chongqing.Finally,using the result of population prediction,the regression equation is used to predict the future change of education resources in Chongqing.Through the comparison and prediction of preschool education resources in Chongqing,the following conclusions can be drawn:(1)Preschool education resources in Chongqing continue to grow,which is basically consistent with the growth of preschool education resources nationwide.According to the results of a cluster analysis of pre-school education by province in2009 and 2019,Chongqing ranked relatively behind in terms of school floor area per student(square meters per person)and school floor area per student(square meters per person).Especially in recent years,other provinces' school floor area per student(square meters/person)and school floor area per student(square meters/person)are significantly larger than Chongqing.(2)According to the population prediction model,the population of Chongqing will continue to grow in recent years and will reach 34,919,343 in 2025.The number of registered population in Chongqing has a linear correlation with the number of kindergartens in Chongqing,the area of kindergartens,the building area,the total number of books,the number of teachers and staff,the number of kindergartens and the number of kindergarten classes.(3)The results show that from 2021 to 2025,the number of preschool children in Chongqing continues to increase,from 109,114 in 2021 to 1211,072 in 2025,an increase of 119,928,or 10.99%.In terms of preschool education resources in Chongqing,by 2025,the number of kindergartens will increase to 6,469,and the area of kindergartens will increase to 12,314,164.1 square meters.The construction area of school buildings will also continue to increase to 8,95,3122.988 square meters.The number of teaching staff will increase to 132,456,and the total volume of books will also continue to increase.There are expected to be 1,1037,238 copies by 2025.Based on the above research conclusions,relevant suggestions are put forward for the allocation of preschool education resources in Chongqing: increasing the number of preschool education kindergartens to meet the growing needs of children in the future.Expand the area of preschool education kindergartens and pay attention to the proportion of school buildings.We will increase the number of preschool and kindergarten staff and pay attention to the quality of teachers.Increase the total amount of books for preschool education and kindergartens to meet children's reading needs.We will strengthen monitoring of the population increase in districts and counties,and clarify the trend of changes in the size of children in kindergartens.