Study On The Change Of School-age Population And The Balanced Allocation Of Basic Education Resources Between Urban And Rural Areas In Guizhou From The Perspective Of Education Equity

Guizhou is located in the hinterland of southwest China.As a multi-ethnic province,its population changes are complex and diverse.In recent years,due to changes in fertility policies and the acceleration of urbanization,the population pattern of Guizhou has undergone tremendous changes.The number,structure and trends of the school-age population are still unclear.The change of school-age population plays a leading role in the allocation of educational resources.Therefore,it is of great significance to predict the school-age population of in advance in order to avoid the shortage or oversupply of basic education resources.Firstly,the status quo of school-age population and resource allocation in urban and rural basic education in Guizhou was analyzed by literature research method and statistical analysis method to clarify the impact of school-age population change on basic education resources.Secondlyxbased on the sample survey data of 1% population in Guizhou Province in 2015,the International Population Prediction Software(padisint)is used to forecast the changing trend of the school-age population in basic education from 2018 to 2035.Then the urban-rural proportion of basic education students is predicted by combining the gross enrollment rate and education urbanization rate of each school segment.Thirdly,on this basis,with reference to relevant school standards and actual situation,the demand changes of schools and classes,teachers,materials,funds and other aspects of education resources in urban and rural basic education stage are predicted.Finally,the peak value(or valley value)of the results is compared with the current level of education supply in 2016,and the gap between supply and demand of various resources is calculated.Then based on the realization of urban-rural education equalization,the allocation idea of basic education resources in Guizhou is proposed.The research draws the following conclusions: First,the total number of students enrolled in basic education in Guizhou decreased first and then increased during the forecast period,and the scale of students enrolled in urban and rural areas shows a reverse trend.Second,the demand quantity for urban schools and classes is greater than the existing ones,but the existing quantity is relatively excessive in rural areas.Third,the existing teachers in the towns are overstaffed and understaffed coexist,while the existing teachers in countryside are seriously overstaffed.Fourth,the educational materials demand in cities is greater than the existing quantity,and the existing supplies in the rural areas are sufficient as well.Fifth,the investment in education for urban and rural areas continues to grow,and the contradiction between supply and demand becoming increasingly prominent.The balanced development of basic education is of great significance to the accumulation of human capital and even economic growth in Guizhou.Based on the above analysis,it is recommended that the department of education make timely adjustments through planning school layout rationally,strengthening the construction of teaching staff,integrating the material resources comprehensivelyximproving the conditions for running schools accurately,enhancing the financial coordination,broadening the sources of funding,improving the education supervision system,implementing the performance evaluation mechanism and so on.In this way,making every effort to realize the equalization of basic education resources between urban and rural areas.