Analysis On The Impact Of Regional Fiscal Revenue And Expenditure On Economic Growth In Yunnan Province

In recent years,Yunnan's economic development has grown at a faster rate,but its overall economic development is not high.Combined with the situation in Yunnan Province,the financial revenues and expenditures of the 16 cities are quite different.Some of the city's fiscal revenues are far greater than the fiscal expenditures,others are unable to make ends meet.The role of fiscal revenue and expenditure in various regions is not always the same for economic growth,so sub-regional research can highlight the differences between cities.Thus,this paper studies the impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure on economic growth in various regions of Yunnan Province,which is not only conducive to promoting the balanced development of various regions of Yunnan Province,but also has a guiding role in reducing the gap between regions.Furthermore,it will better promote the economic growth of Yunnan Province under the new economic normal.This paper summarizes the related concepts,theories and econometric models involved in the research process,then combining the data of fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth of 16 cities in Yunnan Province from 1995 to 2017,descriptively analyze per capita GDP and per capita fiscal revenue and expenditure of each region.To further study the impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure on economic growth in Yunnan Province,we should use the panel model to analyze the data in various regions.The modeling analysis is mainly divided into four parts.The first part,co-integration test on the per capita GDP,per capita fiscal revenue,and per capita fiscal expenditure of each region in the logarithm,then,the test results show that the three have a long-term equilibrium relationship.The second part,after the selection of the optimal lag order of the model and its stability test,we can establish the stable panel VAR(1)model.The third part,In order to better understand whether there is a significant causal relationship between endogenous variables,using the panel Granger causality test,it is found that there is a two-way Granger causal relationship between regional economic growth and fiscal revenue,and fiscal revenue and expenditure,while economic growth is the single Granger causal relationship of fiscal expenditure.The fourth part,in order to further analyze the dynamic impact between fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth,it is found that fiscal revenue has a certain role in promoting economic growth in the short term,but the impact on fiscal expenditure has a certain lag.The impact of fiscal expenditure on economic growth has a greater effect in the short term,and has a long-term effect,besides it has a positive effect on fiscal revenue though its effect is not obvious.Economic growth does not have an immediate impact on fiscal expenditures,this means it also has a lag,but the impact on fiscal revenues has a positive effect in the short term.Finally,based on empirical findings,the gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure and economic growth in various regions of the province is relatively large.And there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among logarithmic fiscal revenue,logarithmic fiscal expenditure and logarithmic economic growth.In the short term,fiscal revenue has a certain role in promoting economic growth,and the impact on fiscal expenditure is lagging.The impact of fiscal expenditure on economic growth has a greater effect in the short term and a smaller effect in the long run.Economic growth also has a lag in fiscal expenditure,and the impact on fiscal revenue has a positive effect in the short term.Based on the conclusions of this paper,two suggestions are proposed: First,formulate strategies for economic development in various regions of Yunnan Province to narrow the gaps in different regions.Second,develop advantageous industries and potential industries according to local conditions,so as to narrow the regional fiscal revenue and expenditure gap.