Research On The Influence Of Different Stages Of Japanese Population Aging On Economic Growth

After the Second World War,Japan’s economy experienced a brief depression and recovery,and then entered the "golden age" of rapid growth for more than a decade.Many call this the "miracle of Japan’s economy".The turning point for Japan’s post-war economic growth came in the early 1970s.Coincidentally,this period was also a demographic turning point in Japanese society.Scholars call this phenomenon the "double inflection point" of Japan’s social economy,that is: the economy from high growth to low growth inflection point;the social population structure enters the inflection point of aging.This coincidence suggests whether demographic changes or an ageing population are important factors in Japan’s economic growth.Do different stages of aging have different impacts on Japan’s economic growth? Will the aging of the population have the same impact on Japan’s economic growth in different stages through multiple paths? These are the key issues to be discussed in this paper.According to the classification standard of the aging society of the United Nations,China has already entered the aging society,and the "demographic dividend" that promotes the economic growth of China is gradually fading.Many scholars believe that China’s economy has entered the Lewis turning point.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the impact of different stages of population aging on economic growth in Japan and summarize its experience and lessons,so as to cope with the impact of aging phenomenon on social economy in China.On the basis of sorting out,summarizing and reviewing relevant theories and literatures,this paper takes 65 years old as the starting standard for the study of Japan’s aging population according to the actual situation and reform trend of Japan,and expounds the reasons for choosing this standard.Then,by analyzing the changes of the three indicators of birth rate and death rate,population size and population age structure in Japan from 1970 to 2018,the aging society of Japan is divided into mild aging stage(1970-1994)and severe aging stage(1995-present).Then it analyzes the influence of the continuous decline of labor supply,the adjustment of industrial structure and the increasing burden of social security on the economic growth brought about by the aging society.This paper analyzes in depth the different stages from mild to severe development of Japan’s aging society.On the basis of normative analysis,based on the time series data of Japan from 1970 to 2018,this paper USES empirical analysis to establish vector auto-regressive models for the mild aging stage and the severe aging stage respectively,and investigates the different influences of different aging stages on economic growth in Japan.Results show that in mild aging stage(1970-1994),an ageing population has a negative impact on economic growth in the short term,but long-term effect from negative to positive,mainly because the light aging stage,the Labor supply gradually reduce and gradually aggravate the burden of social security and hindered the economic growth in Japan,but as time goes on,the rise of aging related industries to promote the adjustment of industrial structure,make the aging effect of Japan’s economic growth from negative to positive.In severe aging stage(1995-2018),an aging population maintaining a positive effect on a stage at the end of the short term,but positive effect with the degree of aging,and eventually hinder economic growth,the main reason lies in the fact that Japan’s aging industry development stimulates the economic growth in the short term,but long-term effect weakened gradually,and with the deepening of aging degree,labor supply continues to decline and social security costs continue to rise,hindered the economic growth,the economy in a slump for a long time.Main contribution of this article lies in: first,in the study of Japan’s aging society’s influence on economic growth,the existing research is usually an aging society as a whole,is not can be divided into different stages respectively,this article will be Japan’s aging society is divided into two different phases,differentiate,and put forward the basis),Japan’s population is ageing is studied in two stages respectively the different degree of impact on economic growth,make the research more in-depth and specific.Second,the paper studies the effects of aging on social and economic development,the country’s legal and emeritus age generally as the starting point for the ageing of the population age,and based on the study of Japan’s aging population’s influence on economic growth,will be the starting point for the aging population age determined to be 65 years old,(the Japanese civil servants of the current legal and emeritus age is 60 years old)and that the selection criteria more accord with Japan the reality of the society,more can reflect the deepening global ageing society and raising the retirement age this trend.Thirdly,vector auto-regressive models were established for the mild aging stage and the severe aging stage respectively,and the influence of population aging on economic growth in Japan in the two stages was studied by time series diagram,ADF unit root test and pulse analysis.