Analysis Of The Causes Of The Historical Changes Of China's Family Planning Policy Based On The Theory Of Punctuated Equilibrium

The population issue is a big challenge in China,which is related to China's comprehensive,coordinated and sustainable development and social and economic development.The family planning policy that is relevant with population is an important public policy,and its changes are relate to China's future development.The family planning policy has been developed and improved the past decades,and it has been written into Constitution as the country's basic national policy.Its historical change progress can be described as the epitome of the history of China's public policy changes.Policy research on family planning will help to better understand the causes of the policy,the development process and its impact on the economy and society.It will further improve China's policy system and scientific decision-making process.The dissertation explores the motivation of the historical changes of China's family planning policy based on the theoretical framework of punctuated equilibrium.It provides a reasonable explanation for the policy changes in the application of policy science.The main point of the theory is that public policy has the situation of long-term equilibrium and occasional short-term mutation in the process of change.The theory of punctuated equilibrium breaks through the interpretation dilemma of the gradualist model theory and is more convincing in understanding the policy change process.It found that the policy change process has the main features of the framework by combing the history of China's family planning.The dissertation adopts a discontinuous analysis framework to provide a new perspective for explaining the changes.It proposes revisions to the applicability of the theory of punctuated equilibrium and conducts the future changesThe main research methods are literature analysis,historical analysis and induction method.The article focuses on two important changes in the number of birth control and the existence of an enforced system to restrict the reproductive behavior and divides the history of China's birth policy into four stages.They are the policy equilibrium period:voluntary and advocating family planning period(1948-1978);policy mutation period:from no institutional constraints to institutional constraints to implement family planning policy(1978-1982);policy equilibrium period:"one child" policy The 30-year equilibrium period(1982-2013);finally,the development of the second-child policy and the collapse of the policy monopoly(2013-present).The motivations for historical changes of family planning policy are sorted out through the analysis of the policy pictures,the leader's ruling concept,the role of the media and the decision-making model.This paper argues that they are important factors influencing the intermittent changes of policies.The future changes of family planning should pay attention to the changes of these factors to make scientific decisions.