The Influence Of Population Migration On The Supplyof Local Public Goods

Since the adoption of reform and opening-up policy,with the development of industrialization,urbanization and market economy in China,the floating population which is dominated by the young labor force has expanded rapidly.According to statistics,by the end of 2015,the number of floating population in China has reached 247 million,which is about 37.6 times more than that of 1982,and it accounts for 16% of the total population.Large-scale floating population not only provides sufficient labor resources for industrialization and urbanization in China,but also has an important differentiation effect on local government revenue and expenditure.Specifically,from the perspective of inflow,on the one hand,large-scale population inflow will promote local economic development,expand tax base and increase revenue.On the other hand,it will bring crowding effect to local public goods and increase the pressure of fiscal expenditure.From the perspective of outflow,the large-scale outflow of people affects the economic development of the region and reduces local fiscal revenue.And it also reduces the demand for local public goods and reduces the pressure on fiscal expenditure.Therefore,how the local government provides public goods according to the trend of population migration to achieve the matching of public goods supply and demand is the subject of this paper.The article divides public goods into two categories,“hard” and “soft” on the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature and related theories.It uses the panel data of 30 provinces from 2007 to 2016 and constructs the spatial panel model to investigate the impact of population movement on the supply of local public goods from the view of population inflows and population outflows.And the results of this paper are as follows.Firstly,the local government didn't adjust the scale of public expenditure in response to changes with population.Besides,there was a mismatch in the supply and demand of public goods;Secondly,the supply of local public goods had significant spatial dependence and the transfer payment system has obvious directivity;Thirdly,the level of economic development is still an important factor to influence the supply level of local public goods.Based on the conclusions and the reality,this paper proposes some suggestions such as corresponding countermeasures from the aspects of optimizing the distribution of financial power and authority,establishing a dynamic public goods budget system,the central and provincial special transfer payment systems,and narrowing the regional economic development gap.