Delayed Retirement Decision Analysis Based On Personal Utility Maximization

Now the aging of population has become a common concern.Not only it can influence the national pension balance directly,but it also can affect the economic development of countries,which makes many countries take measures to prevent further deterioration.On January 2017,the proportion of people over the age of 60 has been 16.7%,which makes China face a huge challenge of the aging of population.With the aggravating trend of aging,China has been gradually attaching importance to this issue.And the government actively carries out population aging action to find countermeasures.Based on the maximization of individual utility and the two-state model,this paper introduces national health factors and constructs a three-state model.According to the three-state model,each variable in the model is analyzed to judge variables'impact on the delay-retirement decision.In addition,the paper empirically studies the optimal retirement age of mental workers and manual workers in order to analyze the optimal retirement age of different occupational groups.And with the every province'changing law of the average life expectancy,the paper analyzes the distribution characteristics of the optimal retirement age in 1990,2000 and 2010.The result as follows:The optimal retirement age has a positive correlation with the inflation rate,the wage-return rate,and so on.But it negatively correlates with the probability of health,the distinction factor of workers.According to further analysis,the manual and mental workers have different retirement wishes.Manual workers have low acceptance of delay-retirement decisions.Delay-retirement for mental workers can significantly increase their personal utility.Mental workers are easier to accept delay-retirement decisions.So the manual workers' retirement age should be lower than that of mental workers.According to the findings,the gap should be 1-2 years of age at best.The optimal retirement age of economically developed provinces is higher,such as Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,Zhejiang and Jiangsu,and so on.But that of economically backward provinces is lower,such as Qinghai,Tibet,Yunnan and Guizhou and so on.Finally,according to the research results,considering the basic conditions of our country,it is suggested that the delay-retirement decision should be based on the progressive principle,gradually reduce the gender gap.And we should pay attention to differentiating from industries and regions.In the process of implementation,an inspection procedure should be established.We should strengthen the implementation of benefiting-people policies,reduce the negative effects caused by the delay of retirement to promote the process of delay-retirement policy reform.