Research On The Early Warning Indicator System Of Vehicle-ramming Terrorist Attacks To The Influential Targets

In recent years,there have been an increasing number of vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks in around the world,with influential targets with high population density as the attack goals.Driving and crushing motor vehicles,these terrorists have caused a large number of casualties in societies.This thesis aims to prevent influential targets from being hit by vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks.Based on official media,the Global Terrorism Database(GTD),and other open sources related to vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks,this thesis studies the warning indicators system of vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks.The theoretical framework of this thesis is as follow: behavioral psychology theory,comprehensive analysis of qualitative and quantitative research methods such as association analysis,label analysis,literature research.Also,analytic hierarchy process is used to analyze vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks.With the application of above methodologies and references,the characteristics and reasons of vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks to influential targets with high population density are concluded,and on the basis of it,a warning index system including "abnormal person background","abnormal life behavior",and "abnormal vehicle-related behavior" was established.In the last,the early warning indicator system was verified from case study of “10.28” terrorist attack in Beijing,and therefore optimization measures are put forward during the operation of the early warning indicator system.Through the reading and learning of relevant documents on vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks,the analysis of historical data and cases of this kind of terrorist attacks,and the comprehensive use of various research methods,a scientific and perfect early warning indicator system was constructed.The entire research process closely focused on the "influential targets"," vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks " and " early warning index system",explored the internal relationship between the three,and tapped potential information.Specifically,the research process is divided into the following four parts.The first part is the basic framework,introducing the macro background,current status of research,as well as the research methods and ideas,providing theoretical and practical support for this thesis.The second part is the analysis and induction part.This part summarizes the characteristics of the influential targets that are susceptible to vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks,divides the types of influential targets,and analyzes the characteristics and reasons of vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks based on historical data.The third part is the construction part of the early warning indicator system.Based on the basic support of the first part and the analysis and induction of the second part,the association analysis method is used to explore the relationship between the influentialtargets and the elements in vehicle-ramming terrorist attacks.Through the above analysis,abnormal behavior modes can be found and therefore the first-level indicators determined,the second-and third-level indicators expanded through specific case studies.The indicators with reference to behaviorist psychology are then classified,and the indicator system constructed with the use of analytic hierarchy process.The fourth part is the verification,optimization and improvement part,clarifying the early-warning workflow,using actual cases to verify the indicator system,proposing optimization measures for corresponding links,and improving the role of the early-warning indicator system.