Study On Risk Analysis Method Of Terrorist Attacks On Urban Key Targets

In recent years,densely populated,property-concentrated,and symbolic areas in cities have become the main terrorist targets.Study about the terrorist attack risk of key areas is very important,which could prevent and control terrorist risks in some grade.However,most domestic and foreign researches ignore the non-linear coupling relationship between the attack consequences of an attack,the vulnerability of the target and the possibility of being attacked,that is,lack of consideration about the decision-making rationality of terrorist organizations and the risk level of the key areas.In addition,there is also lack of systematic tool support in the risk analysis of terrorist attacks.Therefore,this article has done the relevant study,and the specific contents are as followed.(1)Research of terrorist attack target selection preference analysis.Based on the prospect theory,considering the possibility,consequences of a terrorist attack on a target,and the selection preference of terrorist organizations under uncertain decision-making conditions,established a terrorist attack target selection preference analysis model,and calculated the prospects of typical terrorist organizations for various key targets.From the calculation results,It can be seen that terrorist organizations are more inclined to attack transportation hubs,large commercial venues,large event venues and other key targets.However,different terrorist organizations have different attack preferences for key targets.For example,the Islamic State is more inclined to attack traffic hubs and large-scale commercial venues(prospective values are0.867,0.253,respectively),while Boko Haram is more inclined to large-scale commercial venues and large-scale event venues(0.463,0.168).(2)Research of the vulnerability analysis of key urban targets.Based on the analysis of the vulnerability influencing factors of key urban targets,the vulnerability analysis index system of key urban areas and typical key targets are established respectively.First the methods such as AHP,DS evidence theory and Delphi method are used to calculate index weights,then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is applied on calculating the vulnerability grades of key urban areas,and the benchmarking analysis method is used to calculate the vulnerability scores of key urban targets.Also,by combining the vulnerability grades of urban areas and the vulnerability scores of key urban targets,the key areas’ vulnerability of the cities are calculated.Finally,take the key target subway station J in a key area of a large city in the North as an example,combining the prospects of terrorist organizations on various key targets and the vulnerability of key targets in the urban area,the risk of terrorist attacks on key targets in the city is calculated.The results show that there are certain differences in the risk value of terrorist attacks by different terrorist organizations on the key target.Among them,the risk value of the subway station J of the Islamic State,the Somali Al-Shabaab,the Taliban,and Boko Haram are0.038,0.035,0.012,0.006 respectively.Refer to the risk level evaluation standard of this article,It can be seen that the risk level of Boko Haram’s terrorist attack on subway station J is “low”,and the risk level of the other three terrorist organizations’ terrorist attacks on the target is“medium”.(3)The design and realization of the risk analysis software for terrorist attacks on key urban targets.Based on the geographic information system,the risk analysis software for terrorist attacks on key urban targets has been completed.The software mainly includes four functions: index management,key target management,scoring management,and evaluated result analysis.The software can provide support about information management,visual analysis,and regular assessment for the terrorist attacks risk analysis of key urban targets.The research results of this paper can provide decision making support of preventing and controlling the risk of terrorist attacks on key urban targets for public security,emergency departments and other departments,also could provide theoretical basis of police forces and emergency forces resource allocation.