Study On Assessment Modeling And Experimental Simulation Of Overseas Base

As the important strategic support for great power to project the state power and maintain overseas interests,the overseas bases have a far-reaching and extensive impact on the country's foreign development.Currently,the deployment and operation of overseas bases belong to the world major military powers present new features.To conduct the risk assessment and experiment simulation are helpful for revealing and sorting the impaction mechanism of evaluation projection,as well as scientific assessment of the risk faced by the overseas bases,which could provide scientific planning and decision-making consultation of it.The paper conducts the risk assessment modeling and experiment simulation with the theory and methods of risk assessment based on the previous study.(1)The paper systematically analyzes and summarizes the previous work on the overseas bases theory research,sorts out the basic concepts and types of overseas bases;Introducing the theories and methods of risk analysis,the paper expounds the risks faced by overseas bases,and puts forward the concepts and definition of natural risk and strategic risk.(2)The evaluation index system of natural risk for the China's overseas support base is found on the risk identification and assessment of environment of dangerous sources according to the nature and status of itself.In order to present the complicated non-linear relationships among indices,the BN is used to realize the quantitative evaluation with the input of CPT,which is computed with the Monte-Carlo method.To solve the problems of group decision and hesitation through the process of assessment,H-AHP is used to calculate the index memberships.(3)Risk identification is based on the analyzation that China's overseas airports in the South China Sea are a playing part of overseas base protection function.Aiming at the relatively single characteristic of the risk factors of the insurance body,the risk function of the four types of natural risk factors such as thunderstorm,low visibility,low-level wind shear and precipitation are selected.Taking the precipitation impact index as a case,the quantitative risk evaluation and analysis of the overseas airport is realized by the entropy weight method and Lagrangian multiplier according to the advantage of the available ERAinterim reanalysis data.(4)The strategic risk evaluation index system of overseas bases is found on the deployment conditions,and the adjustment of America's military base in the Gulf region before and after “9·11” event is selected as the evaluation object.The risk grade of different types of index is classified with the fuzzy classification and clustering algorithm,which are fused by the WGA to realize quantitative risk evaluation based on the uneven interval cloud model.(5)To apply the risk evaluation of overseas bases to the process of the decision making,the paper proposes the utility functions of both deployed country and host country with the risk mechanism on the foundation of the game theory.With the scenario simulation where two hostile countries meanwhile aim to deploy bases in the same sea area,the paper constructs the game model of three players,including the host country,and generates the matrix of the risk restriction and the payoff matrix which is solved to find the Nash equilibrium by the method of eliminating bad strategy.The paper also contrasts the calculation result with the U.S.overseas bases deployment condition,and discusses the rationality of the model.