Research On The Construction Of China’s Overseas Interests Related To Terrorism Risk Assessment Model Under The Background Of "Belt And Road Initiative"

After the 2008 global economic crisis,China’s overseas investment showed an expansion trend.The "One Belt,One Road" Initiative and the establishment of diversified bilateral and regional cooperation platforms also mark that China’s overseas interests have entered a new level in terms of time,space,scope and connotation.However,due to the special geographical location,countries along the Belt and Road are often the regions with high incidence of terrorist attacks.These countries are located in important transportation routes,rich resources or areas with serious religious and ethnic disputes.The explosive growth of extremist acts and terrorist attacks has brought great risks and challenges to the protection of China’s overseas interests along the Belt and Road.In view of the complex influencing factors of overseas interests and terrorism,this study optimizes the risk index system through literature analysis,expert consultation and correlation analysis,uses machine learning algorithm to build the risk assessment model of China’s overseas interests involved in terrorism under the background of "The Belt and Road",analyzes the risk level and risk similarity of various countries,and proposes corresponding countermeasures and prevention system.The specific research is as follows:1.Build a terrorism-related risk assessment index system: On the basis of the identification system for the security risks of overseas interests involved in terrorism,the risk list and structure are clarified,and 76 related indicators are extracted by combining the analysis reports of domestic and foreign think tanks and research institutions.43 quantifiable and accessible risk indicators are screened and supplemented through expert review,and 18 indicators significantly related to risk rating are further screened by correlation test.Make indicators more scientific and objective.2.Use machine learning to build a risk assessment model: By comparing five representative machine learning algorithms,the optimal algorithm is selected to build the assessment model of overseas interests and terrorism-related risks.The operation of the model is analyzed by drawing the learning curve,and the model is adjusted and optimized by using Bayesian optimization algorithm to achieve the universality and efficiency of the assessment of China’s overseas interests and terrorism-related risks under the background of "One Belt and One Road".3.Prediction and analysis of national risk rating results: Based on the constructed risk assessment model,the risk-related data of each host country in 2021 were input to predict the rating results of overseas interest terrorism-related risks of each country in 2022.It was found that there were 4 low-risk countries(Ⅰ),45 medium-risk countries(Ⅱ-Ⅳ)and 6high-risk countries(Ⅳ-Ⅴ).The K-means algorithm was used to conduct cluster analysis on the risk similarity of each host country,and each host country was divided into five categories.4.Study on the prevention of risks related to terrorism by China’s overseas interests under the background of "One Belt and One Road" : According to the results of risk assessment and analysis,corresponding countermeasures against risks related to terrorism by overseas interests are proposed for countries of different risk levels and types,and a prevention system for risks related to terrorism by China’s overseas interests under the background of "One Belt and One Road" is built.While introducing machine learning algorithm,this study improves the scientificity,objectivity and accuracy of risk assessment,and provides strong support for the government and enterprises to formulate targeted prevention strategies of terrorism risks related to overseas interests.It is of great significance in dealing with the challenges brought by extremism and terrorism,and contributes to safeguarding China’s overseas interests along the Belt and Road.