Explosion Of Imperial Reckages

At the beginning of the 21 st century,with a series of geopolitical changes occurred around Russia,some unrecognized non-states were formed.To explore the current status and prospects of unrecognized non-states,the paper selects Abkhazia,South Ossetia,and Donbass as study cases.Based on the four-dimensional decomposition of the concept "frontier" in the three regions,this paper finds that Abkhazia was built to be a typical frontier region,and its only political road for the foreseeable future is independence.South Ossetia is an atypical frontier region,and therefore,independence or integration with Russia is the available political choice in the future.Donbass is a non-frontier region that looks like a border region,and the corresponding future political road is to maintain the status quo of division or to integrate with Russia.Different regions have different choices for future political paths,according to the extent of "frontier".The three regions are divided into two models in their local socio-political model.One is the "Company town Model" in the Donbass area,and the other is the "Negative Feedback Model by the Rentiers" in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.Neither can adapt to the development of modern society and economy,but the former is superior to the latter in terms of political autonomy,potential economic development,and social cohesion.Correspondingly,with the same intensity of intervention,the maintenance cost of the former is lower than that of the latter.Based on its own political and interest needs,Russia takes into account the maintenance costs after intervention,and elaborate the future political road options that the local can provide,accordingly.From the decision-making process,it is predicted that Russia will reduce its support for Abkhazia and South Ossetia,and its support for the Donbass region will remain unchanged.Russia's direct involvement in unrecognized non-states is a forced treatment of the legacy of the disintegration of the Soviet Union and a response to the strategic squeeze of the Western world,which is generally a damage to its interests.