Prediction And Correlation Analysis Of "Three Major Disputes" Case In Rural Of Guangxi

At present,with the rapid economic and social development in China,there has been a consistent rural urbanization development.The economic interests of rural land and forest increase significantly during the process of the collection of rural collective land in order to achieve economic development.Therefore,there are some new changes in the rural'Three Main Disputes'which includes land dispute,forest dispute,water and dispute.While the disputes are getting worse and worse,it has brought great pressure to judicial justice and the social harmony and stability of rural areas.Since the implement of the new Administrative Procedure Law,the trial level of administrative cases involving the'Three Main Disputes' has been upgraded,which brings new challenges for the courts to deal with relevant cases.This research is based on the relevant data of rural'Three Main Disputes'cases of Guangxi courts from 2012 to 2017,it uses the gray prediction model to construct the prediction model of rural'Three Main Disputes' cases of Guangxi,and to predict the possible number of rural'Three Main Disputes' cases of Guangxi of the next few years through this model.It adopts the SPSS correlation analysis to explore the correlation between Guangxi's total agricultural output value,farmers'per capita net income,poverty alleviation financial expenditure and the number of'Three Main Disputes'cases in rural areas of Guangxi.It analyzes the main problems and reasons when the courts trial the current'Three Main Disputes'cases,through examining the recent years of cases from Guangxi's various levels of court,involving literature reading and instance analysis.It explores the possibilities to address the current rural'Three Main Disputes'in a more effectively way from the perspective of law enforcers.The results are stated as below:1.The establishment and test of the prediction model for the occurrence of'Three Main Disputes' cases in rural areas of Guangxi:the gray prediction model for the first trial of'Three Main Disputes' cases in rural areas of Guangxi was established by the number of the first trial of'Three Main Disputes' cases.After the residual test and variance ratio test and small error probability test of the model,it shows that the model's residual error inspection Q value is 0.0213,while the variance ratio test value is 0.2856 C and a posteriori difference test P value is 1,which means that the precision of this model is high,and it can be used to the forecast analysis of the number of'Three Main Disputes'cases.2.It uses this gray model and Matlab model to predict the occurrence of'Three Main Disputes'cases in rural areas of Guangxi in the next few years.The result shows that the number of'Three Main Disputes'cases in rural areas of Guangxi will keep increasing in the next few years,to be more precisely,the case number will be 1885.68,1950.36 and 2017.25 in the coming three years,with a growth rate of 8.56%,3.43%and 3.43%respectively.The incidence rate of'Three Main Disputes' cases in rural areas of Guangxi are not optimistic.3.It analyzes the correlation between the number of urban and rural residents with minimum subsistence allowance,per capita grain output,total output value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,per capita net income of farmers and financial expenditure for poverty alleviation and the number of'Three Main Disputes'cases in rural areas of Guangxi.The result shows that the number of the first trial of the'Three Main Disputes' cases is positively correlated with the total agricultural output value,the per capita net income of farmers and the financial expenditure of poverty alleviation,and positively correlated with the per capita grain output,but the differences are not significant.And the number of urban and rural residents living minimum security is negatively correlated.4.Through the above prediction and correlation analysis,combined with the examination of the main problems when the courts were dealing with the'Three Main Disputes' cases in the past six years,this study provides suggestions as:establishing a correct concept of judicial enforcement,giving a full play to the role of the people's assessors,building a new pattern in which the courts resolve the'Three Main Disputes'in a diversified way,strictly regulating the trial execution of the'Three Main Disputes'cases,strengthening the construction of the courts and the publicity of the legal system,and increasing the importance of the judicial suggestions of the courts.