Risk Analysis And Financial Evaluation Of PPP Construction Project Of Public Culture

With the rapid development of China’s social economy,people’s demand for public cultural services is also growing,which makes the construction of public cultural projects lag behind,the operation of the public cultural industry is poor and other problems gradually appear,which is mainly caused by the lack of financing channels for public cultural projects in China,the single way of development and other reasons.As a relatively new financing channel and project development mode,PPP(public private partnership)mode has achieved good results in expressways,energy production,sewage treatment,and rail transit construction.In recent yearsan increasing number ofpublic cultural construction projects have begun to adopt the PPP mode.However,PPP projects have a large investment scale,long operation times,unstable operation income and high investment risk.It is necessary to carry out investment risk analyses and financial evaluations before making investment decisions on such projects,to judge their economic feasibility.Based on the project of Qingyuan Art Center,this paper analyzes the project risk and financial indicators of PPP projects in public culture.The research in this thesis can provide reference for the investment risk assessment and investment decision-making of PPP projects in the field of public culture,so it has certain theoretical significance and reference value.The main research contents of this thesis are as follows: Firstly,the necessity of the PPP mode applied to public cultural projects was analyzed.Twenty potential risk factors of the Art Center PPP project were summarized by literature analysis and a questionnaire.Among them,eight main risk factors influencing the project’s investment decision were calculated and identified by the DEMATEL method.Combined with the cash flow of the project,the main risk factors were quantified,and the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to evaluate the financial performance of the project.According to the calculated financial evaluation indicators(net present value,internal rate of return,payback period),the profitability of the PPP mode for the art Center project was analyzed.Finally,the Va R method was used to calculate the value deviation.The loss of project income under different confidence levels was compared and analyzed,and investment reference suggestions were put forward.From this study,the following conclusion can be draw:(1)The combining of the DEMATEL method and Monte Carlo simulation method can achieve the qualitative and quantitative analysis of project risk,which lead to a more clearly evaluation on the project risk.(2)Based on the Va R theory and the investor’s risk tolerance,the loss of investment income under a certain confidence level can be used as an important reference index for project risk decision-making.(3)The PPP mode is suitable for the Qingyuan Art Center project since the investor can obtain benefits,but the project has certain risks.For a social capital party with weak risk tolerance,it should be carefully considered.