Research On Risk Simulation And Management Of Hebei Cultural Industry Project

Aiming to improve the risk management of Hebei cultural industry project,this paper will take the new public management theory,adaptive project management theory,"SRS" project risk identification and classification model as the theoretical basis.Combining the relevant literature to summarize the risk factors of cultural industry project management.Inviting experts analysis of risk indicators,using SPSS 23.0 software for factor analysis and cluster analysis of risks.And then to build a "hebei cultural industry project risk index evaluation system."On the basis of this,taking a cultural industry project in CD city as an example,combined with the index evaluation system to analyze the risk of cultural industry project,and using the system dynamics principle method to explore the interaction relationship of various risks and construct the system dynamics of risk management of cultural industry project.The theoretical model is divided into data based on experts and the entropy method is used to calculate the functional relationship between the risks.The model is simulated by Vensim PLE software.And draw the following conclusions.Conclusion 1: The risk of cultural industry projects is generally upper body trend.At the same time,each risk has a gradual period,and the risk growth during the gradual period is very slow.However,after each risk easing period,the risk increment will be higher than the risk increase before the previous easing period.Conclusion 2: The greater the sensitivity of the risk factor indicator,the greater the impact on the entire risk system.In the risk prevention,the risk indicators with high sensitivity should be paid more attention,and it is easier to reduce the overall risk of the system.Conclusion 3: Risk indicators with high risk increment should curb their growth trend,and attention should be paid to the risk of cooperation between economic risks and operational risks in construction risks.Based on the risk identification of Hebei cultural industry project,this paper collects and organizes many risk factors,factor analysis and cluster analysis to construct the “Hebei Cultural Industry Project Risk Evaluation Index System”.Based on this,taking a cultural industry project in CD city as an example,constructing a "system dynamics theoretical model of risk management of cultural industry projects",and simulating the risk of cultural industry project,in order to face the risk management of Hebei cultural industry project from the theoretical level.Learned from.Finally,it tries to propose countermeasures for the risk management of Hebei cultural industry project from the aspects of cultural industry innovation,introduction of professional talent team,strengthening contract consciousness management,and construction of cultural industry “union”.