Study On The Forecast Of Long-Term Care Needs Of The Oldest Old In China

Objective To analyze the health status and main influencing factors of the oldest old in China,understand the objective factors affecting the long-term care needs of the elderly in China,predict the long-term care needs of the oldest oldin China in the future,and provide relevant policy recommendations for solving the long-term care problems of the oldest old in China.Method The data of CLHLS in 2011 and 2014 were collected and summarized.Describe the health status of the elderly over 80 years old in China,and analyze the main factors affecting their health status by multiple regression analysis,calculates the transition probability of health status with Markov model,and forecasts the long-term care needs of the oldest old in China based on population actuarial theory.Results The health status of the oldest old is poor,the disability rate is over 80%,and with the passage of time,the worsening trend is obvious.The death rate after three years is as high as 44.4%.The main influencing factors of their health status include gender,age,household registration,smoking,drinking,and physical exercise,living style,social activities,source of life,adequate medical care,no public medical treatment,annual physical examination,sleep quality and chronic diseases.The results of long-term nursing demand forecast show that the disability ratio of the oldest old in China is stable at about 70% annually,and the total number of disabled oldest old at all levels shows a trend of decreasing first and then increasing.The total number of disabled oldest old at all levels declines slightly every year from 2015 to 2020,and rises steadily every year from 2021.By 2024,the total number of disabled oldest old will reach more than 13 million,the severely disabled oldest old who are in urgent need of long-term care services exceed 1 million people annually between 2015 and 2024.Conclusion The factors affecting the health status of the oldest old in China are complex,and the demand for long-term care is huge.To improve the health status of the oldest old and assume the long-term care responsibility of the oldest old,it is necessary to improve the health status of the oldest old and reduce the probability of their disability through various ways;to cultivate nurses specially for the oldest old disabled through various measures to provide targeted long-term care services for the oldest old disabled;to strengthen top-level design and promote more long-term care insurance system rationally.Pay attention to the interests of the oldest old.