Research On Epidemiological Characteristics And Spatial Aggregation Of Chickenpox In Jilin Province During 2009-2018

ObjectiveThe incidence of chickenpox has increased in recent years and causes an increasing socio-economic burden.This study analyzed the epidemiologic characteristics and spatial clustering characteristics of chickenpox in Jilin Province from 2009 to 2018 to provides scientific evidence for chickenpox prevention and control work.MethodsThe data of chickenpox are from the "China Disease Prevention and Control Information System".Excel,SPSS were used for statistical analysis,ArcGIS was used for spatial autocorrelation analysis,and SatScan was used for scan statistics analysis.This paper uses two Spatial autocorrelation analysis methods: global autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis.Analyze the global autocorrelation by calculating Moran's I statistics and drawing Moran scatter plots.Local spatial autocorrelation analysis uses LISA analysis and hot spot analysis.ResultsThere were 67,508 cases of chickenpox in Jilin Province from 2009 to 2018,with an average annual incidence of 6750.8 cases and an average annual incidence rate of 24.66/100,000.There were 37480 male cases and 30028 female cases with a sex ratio of 1.25:1.The morbidity of chickenpox was highest in 5-9 year age group(34.3%),next was the age of 10-14(22.35%).The incidence of the 0-24 age group accounts for about 90% of the total cases.Students and children are the most important disease groups,accounting for 87% of all cases.Chickenpox occurs every month of the year,with a clear seasonal distribution and there are two peaks,which mainly occurs in winter and spring.There are 64 counties(districts)in Jilin Province.The counties and districts with high incidence rates are mainly located in Changchun City and Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.The global autocorrelation results show that Moran's I index is 0.1020-0.3514,P<0.05,and the Moran scatter plots are distributed in one or three quadrants,indicating that the distribution of varicella cases in Jilin Province is obviously clustered and positively correlated.The results of local autocorrelation LISA analysis have four aggregation patterns.The "high-high" areas of chickenpox are mainly located in Changchun City and Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.Among them,Chaoyang District,Tumen City,and Longjing City have 5 years of "high-high"."Low-low" areas are mainly located in the northern and southern areas of Jilin Province.The results of local autocorrelation hotspot analysis show that the hotspot areas are located in Changchun City and Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,which is consistent with the results of LISA analysis.The results of the time scan analysis show that the aggregation months in 2009 and 2014 are from April to June,and the aggregation months in other years are from November to December,which is consistent with the seasonal bimodal attacks.Winter and spring are seasons of high incidence of disease.The results of spatial scanning analysis show that the first-level gathering areas in 2009 were four counties(districts)in Changchun City,and the first-level gathering areas in 2010-2018 were all located in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture,which is consistent with the results of local spatial analysis.The results of space-time scanning show that there are three counties(districts)in the first-level gathering area,namely Hunchun City,Tumen City,and Yanji City,all located in the Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.The gathering time is 2014-2018;the second-level gathering area are eight counties(districts)of Changchun,the gathering time is 2009-2011;the third-level gathering area is five counties(districts)of Jilin City,the gathering time is 2009-2012.ConclusionsAccording to the varicella case data in 2009-2018,the epidemic of chickenpox has obvious seasonality.It is prevalent in winter and spring.The main populations are students and children.The counties with high incidence are concentrated in Changchun and Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture.Spatial autocorrelation analysis and scan statistics analysis can accurately analyze the high incidence areaand high incidence time of chickenpox cases.In recent years,the epidemic situation of varicella is severe,and the prevention and control of varicella cannot be slack.It is necessary to take corresponding measures according to the popular features of varicella,and a vaccinia strategy should be formulated as soon as possible.