| ObjectiveThe aim of this study is to establish a model to predict the incidence rate of hand-foot-mouth disease by studying the epidemiological and etiological characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Hengyang and analyzing the correlation between the incidence of HFMD and meteorological factors, and to provide some scientific basic evidences for public health resource allocation and HFMD surveillance and control in Hengyang.Methods1. The monitoring data of HFMD from 2009 to 2015 in Hengyang was analyzed by descriptive epidemiology to describe the distributions of HFMD for time, area, age and gender; using geographic information system(GIS) to describe its spatial and temporal characteristics and etiological characteristics.2. Collected the data about monthly HFMD and meteorological factors(temperature, barometric pressure, precipitation)from 2011 to2015 in Hengyang to do correlation analysis. And through the building ofmeteorological factors, the processing of data standardization,meteorological factors and the correlation of hand, foot and mouth disease incidence matrix, the analytic hierarchy process to build early warning model.3.Collected the data about monthly severe HFMD and meteorological factors(temperature, barometric pressure, precipitation)from 2011 to2015 in Hengyang to do correlation analysis.And by building of meteorological factors and meteorological factors and the correlation of HFMD incidence matrix combined with multivariate linear regression, principal component analysis method to build early warning model.Results:1. Descriptive analysis:There were 62462 reported HFMD cases in Hengyang from 2009 to 2015 by network monitoring information system,and the average incidence was 152.3/10 respectively. Among these,398 were severe cases with 26 deaths., A large summer peak of HFMD occurred between April and July(34836,56.92%)with a second smaller peak between September and October(13741,22.45%). Theseverely and death cases were most frequently seen between April and June.(265/398);HFMD morbidity is wide and various counties urban popular strength is differ, but the largest number occurred mainly hengyang county, leiyang,hengnan county, the highest rates of steamed hunan area, nanyue district,shek kwu area;The incidence of five main was obviously higher than that of the seven counties, the difference was statistically significant(?2 =7.596,P < 0.001); The patients under 4 years of age were at the highest risk, with higher incidence of severe cases and death cases. There was a male predominance of HFMD cases, with a male-to-female ratio between 1.88:1;From lab confirmed cases, the predominant pathogen from 2009 to 2015 inhengyang was EV71 and other enterovirus.;There were 226 severe cases,58.7% of them had serological evidence of EV71.There were 15 death cases, 57.69% of them had serological evidence of EV71.Gis analysis shows that present in hengyang city from 2009 to 2015 HFMD outbreak occurred but local concentration, high-risk geographic region complementary phenomenon; Seven years in the city's overall level of disease is on the rise, there are regional differences at the same time; But little shift over time, a high incidence of HFMD ghettos pathogenic geographical spatial distribution and further research.2. The influence factors analysis: 2009-2015 on HFMD incidence highest degree in related to the monthly average temperature(R = 0.706)and negatively correlated with average monthly sunshine hours and rainfall;Monthly average relative humidity on the incidence of HFMD had no significant influence(P > 0.05).3. Using the analytic hierarchy process(ahp) to build early warning model of hand, foot and mouth disease onset tip: no red alert, 2015, zhuhai in yellow warning for 4, 5, 6, 8 months, in line with usual monitoring data.By principal component analysis(pca) of severe hand, foot and mouth disease early warning model is also very good tip temperature is critical for the important meteorological index, followed by sunshine and humidity index, the influence of precipitation is minimal. Prompt the city in a high incidence of intensive number ?Conclusions:1.The epidemic situation of HFMD in Hengyang is is not optimistic And relatively serious, and more attention should be payed during April toJuly and September to December. Scatter children and preschool children younger than 4years old are the focus of prevention and control.Zhengxiang District,et are the main surveillance area.2.The progressive disease of cases of EV71 infection should be paid more attention.3. The use of GIS technology, expanding of hand, foot and mouth disease epidemiological studies in the field of geography, more intuitive to display time and space distribution characteristics of disease outbreaks.4. Science established based on the factors of hand, foot and mouth disease and severe hand, foot and mouth disease early warning model, can be used in hengyang HFMD epidemic trend forecast, convenient for the public health education information, provides the theory basis for the government to adopt targeted measures. |
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