Performance Evaluation Of NCMS From The Perspective Of Uncertainty

NCMS's essential function is to reduce uncertainty of disposable wealth after illness,while religious behavior is also a mental consolation to medical risk and uncertainty after illness for the rural elderly.Current research show that social security level could negatively affect the religious behaviour,and evaluate the policy effects of NCMS from the perspective of system itself or the insured,ignoring the essential function of medical insurance.Therefore,we can evaluate NCMS ' s performance from the perspective of uncertainty if NCMS negatively affected the religious behavior of the rural elderly and reduced the uncertainty.Therefore,in the process of medical insurance system ' s integration,it is necessary to review NCMS as the representative medical insurance,and provide policy recommendations for the medical system.This article takes NCMS as independent variable and religious behavior(including religious beliefs,frequency of religious activities and importance of religion)as the dependent variables,controlling other influence variables and using uncertainty,risk and insurance theory,as well as rational-economic man assumption,explores the influence by the binary Logit Model and multivariate Logit Model through Data CFPS2016,we conclude that NCMS has statistically negative effcet on the frequency of religious activities and importance of religion,but show statistically insignificant effect on religious beliefs.The main reasons may come from the basic insurance level of NCMS causes quantitative change of religious activities and importance of religion rapidly,and qualitative change of religious beliefs tardily and indistinctively.In order to test the robustness of the results,this article considers the risk aversion into model and use Propensity Score Matching(PSM)for revalidation,the results still work.Beyond that,we also find gender,education level,aloneness,chronic disease,working and housework condition,family religion,income levels,financial assets also show statistically significant to religious behavior.Lastly,this article discuss influencing mechanism from the point of uncertainty,the main conclusions are as below: Firstly,NCMS can reduce the rural elderly 's uncertainty and play its essential roles;Secondly,NCMS meet the basic medical needs;Thirdly,NCMS can reduce religious behavior due to illness,but has less effects on chronic group;Fourthly,aloneness,working and life condition,family religion,etc,can also affect religious behaviour.So we propose several policy suggestions as following: Firstly,the basic medical insurance need stick to protect the serious illness and meet the basic medical needs;Secondly,concern for the mental health of the elderly to promote the realization of healthy aging;Thirdly,guide to establish a correct religious attitude and the rational development of religion.