Planning Of Surging Resilience Capacity Of Hospital Under Emergencies

The hospital is not only responsible for meeting the multi-level medical needs of the masses,but also shoulders the major mission of medical rescue for public emergencies.Emergencies have many features,such as complexity,timeliness,and uncertainty.They may cause serious casualties in a short time,which make hospital emergency decision-making facing significant pressure.At present,the researches of hospital emergency management mainly focus on the afterwards rescue but lacking of planned preparation level research.Once an emergency occurs,the temporary response strategy can only fully utilize existing resources without considering the cost.In term of different types of emergencies,the planned preparation level can make the hospital more effective in coordinating the resources and responding quickly to the surge demand of patients.In response to emergencies,taking the earthquake and traffic accident as the target subject,this research collects wounded data through literatures.Those data include the number of the wounded in the hospital,the arrival time,the type of injury,and the severity of injury.Then the statistical analysis on the deterioration of injury,the arrival distribution of injuries and the probability distribution are studied.Finally,a general surging patient model library is established and can be used to generate cases.By investigating the current emergency process,a simulation model based on SIMIO is established for the emergency management of hospital.The simulation model further introduces the deterioration model to consider the progressive progress of the patients.A lot of wounded data can be obtained by using the general surging patient library.Four evaluation indexes,i.e.the patient's waiting time,the deterioration of the condition,the utilization rate of the medical staff,and hospital cost,are adopted to measure the effect.Finally,through the simulation experiments considering the current emergency management of a local hospital,the feasible surge capacity reserve plans are established by several simulations in term of different scenarios.The results of this study can provide a reference to the hospital management for quantitative suggestions on how many additional medical personnel is needed facing different type of emergencies.Meanwhile we can provide many supporting data to hospital managers when they prepare their emergency plans.