Study On The Relationship Between Drug Costs And Health Based On Fixed Effect Model

Background:Disease is one of the important risks for human survival.Unlike sudden natural disasters,it is a threat to health and life.As an important special medical product,medicine has the natural characteristics of preventing and treating diseases,and plays an important role in improving health and prolonging life.Undoubtedly,the investment in drug costs can improve the health of individuals and groups,but the continuous increase in drug costs has brought a heavy economic burden to the government and the people.People’s demand for health is unlimited,but medical resources are limited.It is particularly important in the current context to study how to make drug expenditures better play a role in improving personal health.Everyone’s health is related to the overall welfare of the whole society.Therefore,improving everyone’s health and health is the welfare of everyone and the welfare of the whole society.Purpose:Using ARIMA model and hierarchical clustering method to descrnbe and analyze the trend and regional difference of drug cost in macroscopic view with time,construct Grossman healthy production function model according to health demand theory and use fixed effect model to explore the relationship between drug cost and health level To analyze the impact of different economic development levels on the health effects of drug costs,it can provide a theoretical basis and practical reference for the government to formulate health policies aimed at improving the overall health of society,and promote the construction of healthy China.Research contents and methods:(1)Longitudinal study of drug costs:The time series ARIMA model is used to predict the drug costs for 2020,and provide data reference for the health sector’s supervision of drugs and the formulation of drug-related policies.(2)Horizontal research on drug costs:Through data collection and collation,it is estimated that 18 provinces in Northeast China,Central Region,Eastern Region and Western Region are the drug costs of the autonomous region in 2003-2015,using hierarchical clustering method.Regional differences in drug costs.(3)Research on the relationship between drug cost and health level:Using the entropy weight method to construct a health level evaluation index system,construct the Grossman health production function according to the health demand theory,and adopt a fixed effect model for the panel data of 18 provinces and autonomous regions nationwide.Empirical analysis of the impact of drug costs,economic level,education level,medical service level and environmental pollution on health level,verify the non-linear relationship between drug costs and health level,and analyze the regional differences in the health effects of drug costs.Result:(1)Trend analysis and forecast of national drug costs from 2000 to 2016 found that drug costs showed an upward trend in 2003-2016,and the growth rate fluctuated;drug costs accounted for a decline in the proportion of total health expenditures.Initial results;medical institutions have a large proportion of drug costs,and retail drug costs continue to rise.The predicted value of drug costs from 2017 to 2020 was 1,784.768 billion yuan,2003.94 billion yuan,2,191.869 billion yuan and 2,244.16 billion yuan,respectively,showing an upward trend.(2)The results of hierarchical cluster analysis of drug cost data of provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions from 2003 to 2015 are divided into three categories.The first category:Anhui,Guangxi,Gansu,Heilongjiang,Jiangxi,Jilin,Liaoning,Shaanxi,Tianjin,Xinjiang,Yunnan;the second category:Beijing,Guangdong,Shanghai,Shandong,Sichuan,Zhejiang;the third category:Fujian.The health level is also divided into three categories,with higher health levels:Shanghai,Zhejiang,Beijing,Guangdong,Jiangxi,Shandong;moderate health areas:Tianjin,Shaanxi,Liaoning,Fujian,Anhui,Heilongjiang;lower health level:Sichuan,Gansu,Jilin,Guangxi,Yunnan,Xinjiang.Therefore,there may be regional drug expenditures and health inequalities.(3)The empirical results of the relationship between drug costs and health levels indicate that the drug costs have an "inverted U-type" effect on the health level,that is,the health level rises first and then decreases with the increase of drug costs.When the value is Cost=341.384615 billion yuan,the health level takes a maximum value,that is,the province,the municipality and autonomous region as the unit,and the drug cost is 341.384615 billion yuan as the optimal value.According to the specific situation of each province,if the province’s drug cost is less than the optimal value,that is,in the rising range to the left of the "inverted U-shaped" curve,the health effect of the drug cost is positive;if the drug cost is greater than the optimal value,it is at The lowering interval on the right side of the "inverted U-shaped" curve is negative for the health effect of the drug cost.The level of health will also increase as the per capita GDP of the region increases and the number of health institutions per 10,000 population increases.The lower the proportion of illiterate people aged 15 and over,the less sulfur dioxide emissions,that is,the higher the education level,the smaller the environmental pollution,and the higher the health level.There are also regional differences in the impact of drug costs on health levels.As the level of economic development increases,the impact of drug costs on health levels is "stepwise".Conclusion:Due to the "inverted U-shaped" relationship between drug costs and health level,within a certain range,the continuous increase of drug costs will lead to an increase in health level,but growth to a certain limit will lead to a decline in health level and damage the overall population.Health level.In order to make the most effective use of drug costs,the state should control the unreasonable growth of drug costs,improve the welfare of residents,and control the cost of drugs within a reasonable range to play the health effects of health inputs.At the same time,due to the regional differences in the impact of drug costs on health,as the level of economic development increases,the impact of drug costs on health levels is "stepwise".The state should reduce regional health inequalities and improve overall health;focus on supporting economically backward areas,and improve the effectiveness of health equity and health poverty alleviation reform.