Time-Series Studies And Forecasts On Health Human Resource Allocation

BackgroundMedicine health system reform is a broad, difficulty big social system project. Because of numerous population, low per capita income, large regional difference between urban and rural and in the primary stage of socialism, medical health system reform is a very complicated arduous task.Human resource is the primary resource; therefore human health resource is the key of the development of public health care.In the health service development process, human health resources are always the decisive role resources.At present, the health system face the most difficult, not only lies in the capital and technology of the shortages, more in excellent health human seriously insufficient.The problem is particularly prominent in our country. The shortage of imbalance of structure distribution in public health expertshave become one of the bottleneck of medical health service development in China.Reasonable allocation of human resources is beneficial not only to health service work development, but also to other health resources to the rational development and utilization, and making an important significance for health service balanced the coordinated development.Objective Through building time series model of mainland China human health resource allocationof1990to2009to analyze the health service needs and demands. Use artificialneural network model to predicate2010-2014China health human resources amount to realize the neural network analysis method in health resource allocation process applications.The results can be revealedthe total amount of the health human resource trend to provide the scientific basis for the public health administrative department.Data&MethodsThis study throughcollectrelated material in2003and2008national health services survey, papers published in CNKI2004-2012, Chinese health statistics yearbook2004-2010, the people’s bank of China’s official website to get human resource allocation, total healthservices, health services needs et al., finishing the data merger usingevidence-based health policy-decision, meta-analysis and use ARIMA model, neural network model for predictions.Main Results1. Set up two weeks morbidity time series from2003to2009.2. Use ARIMA modelforecast China health human resources total amount2010-2014are8095598,8472145,8848692,9225239and9601786, respectively.3. Use ANN model through health services demands data forecast China health human resources total amount2010-2014are10760186,8375172,10733729,10760186,10759408, respectively.4. Use evidence-based health decision-making method get two weeks prevalence time sequence of our country2003-2009were16%,18%,29%,31%,17%,16%and21%, respectively.5. Use ANN model through health services needs data forecast China health human resources total amount2010-2014are12061244,12471327,12477552,12443313and12418413, respectively.Conclusions and Poliey Implications1. More scientific methods of health resources allocation should be explored to meet the health career development.2. We must focus on improving the status of China’s healthcare resource allocation; especially increase health investment in the central and western regions and rural areas.3. The scale of health workforce in rural areas, including the village doctors and hygienists should be expanded. Competition mechanism may be an effective method for alleviating the hardness and costliness for medical treatment.