Risk Factor Screening And Risk Appraisal Of Metabolic Syndrome Based On Case-control Study

Objective:A case-control study was conducted to determine the main risk factors and its OR value for metabolic syndrome.The risk appraisal model of metabolic syndrome was constructed with reference to the Harvard Cancer Risk Index method to help identify modifiable behavioral and lifestyle risk factors and provide basis for individualized health education and health promotion in primary medical service units.Method:1.A case-control design was adopted.The physical examination population was the subject of the study.Questionnaire surveys,physical measurements,and laboratory biochemical indicators were performed.Using the EpiData3.1 software to double-entry data for the establishment of a database,SAS9.4 software for statistical analysis.The 2620 cases were randomly divided into a model group and validation group according to a4:1 ratio.Among them,2,095 were modeled and 525 were validated.Multivariate non-conditional Logistic stepwise regression was used toanalyze statistically significant(P<0.05)factors in the model group as a risk factor for metabolic syndrome and calculate the corresponding OR value.2.Based on the results of case-control study,a simple risk appraisal model for metabolic syndrome was constructed based on the Harvard Cancer Risk Index method,and a metabolic risk assessment map for metabolic syndrome was developed,and assessed using a receiver operator characteristic curve(ROC curve)evaluation.Evaluate the predictive efficacy of the established risk appraisal model for metabolic syndrome.Result:1.The basic situation of the research object:A total of 2,620 people were investigated in this study,including 322 patients with metabolic syndrome(12.29%);1249(47.67%)males and1371(52.33%)females;the youngest 18 years old,the largest 91 years old,mean age 38.29±12.37 years old.There was no statistical difference in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and other demographic characteristics between the model group and the verification group,and they were homogenous.2.Screening for risk factors for metabolic syndrome:Non-conditional Logistic stepwise regression analysis was performed on 2095 model samples in the model group to determine whether the subject was a metabolic syndrome patient as a dependent variable,age,sex,education level,smoking,drinking,physical activity,eating habits,BMI,hypertension family History and family history of diabetes were multivariate Logistic regression analysis models for independent variables.Finally,gender,age,smoking,physical exercise,and BMI entered the model.Among them,physical exercise was a protective factor,and other factors were risk factors.3.A simple risk appraisal model for metabolic syndrome was constructed based on the Harvard Cancer Risk Index method.The risk level of individual metabolic syndrome was divided into five levels,and a metabolic risk appraisal map for metabolic syndrome was developed.The validated data verified that the area under the ROC curve and the 95% CI under the ROC curve were 0.8597(0.82123~0.8981).The Rm of 1.388 can be used as a model to predict the optimal positive critical point for the occurrence of individual metabolic syndrome in the future.The sensitivity of the diagnostic test was 0.882 with a specificity of 0.72.Conclusion:1.Gender,age,smoking,overweight and obesity are risk factors for metabolic syndrome;participating in physical exercise is a protective factor for metabolic syndrome.2.The risk appraisal model of metabolic syndrome constructed with the Harvard Cancer Risk Index method has a good predictive effect.It can provide a simple and effective tool for the management of chronic diseasesfor the community health service center at the grassroots level,providing a simple assessment tool for self-test self-assessment of the risk of metabolic syndrome.3.It is recommended to provide a risk appraisal model to evaluate individuals who are above the general population level and significantly higher than the general population level,actively quit smoking,participate in physical exercise,control their own weight,and control unhealthy living behaviors,so as to achieve reduction or elimination of this dangerous behavior.The purpose is to effectively reduce the risk of metabolic syndrome.