| Objective:To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and ecological influencing factors of tuberculosis in Qujing from 2006 to 2015,and to discuss the relationship between ecological factors and the incidence of tuberculosis,and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the management and control of tuberculosis in Qujing City.To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and epidemic trend of tuberculosis in Qujing City from 2006 to 2015.To explore the relationship between ecologically related influencing factors and the incidence of tuberculosis.Taking ecological factors as independent variables and incidence of tuberculosis as dependent variable,a multiple linear regression model was established.Comparing the tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Qujing with SDG indicators,proposed countermeasures and suggestions on the management and prevention of tuberculosis in Qujing City.method:1.Epidemiological description of tuberculosis in Qujing City from 2006 to 2015,including changes in patient types.Using the reported morbidity and classification constitute two main indicators to describe the time,space(administrative division),gender,and The distribution characteristics of age,occupation,and rate were compared using chi-square test.The average increase(decrease)rate was used to describe the trend of tuberculosis in the target population in Qujing during the ten years.2.Pearson correlation analysis was conducted between the incidence of tuberculosis smear-positive disease and various ecological indicators in Qujing City from 2006 to 2015.The correlation coefficients r and P were calculated,and related indicators with statistical significance were obtained,and each index was described.The relationship with the incidence rate.3.Taking ecological influence factors as independent variables and incidence of tuberculosis as dependent variable,a multiple linear regression model was established.4.The use of excel to present the trend of TB incidence and mortality based on the data of Qujing City,and to make a trend forecast for 2030 under the same growth trend.Compare the forecasted data with the data provided in 2030.Result:1.The incidence of tuberculosis smear positive reported in Qujing City from 2006 to 2015 was maintained at 23.64/100,000-8.15/100,000.From 2006 to 2009,the incidence of Tuyang was reported to be on an upward trend;from 2006 to 2013 The death toll of pulmonary tuberculosis in Qujing has been on an upward trend.The death toll in 2013 reached a maximum of 0.30 per 100,000,which showed a rapid decline in the following two years.2.Epidemiological characteristics:① Classification and time change:The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis smearing positive and undetected in the past ten years has been declining year by year.The incidence of bacterial negative pulmonary tuberculosis and pulmonary tuberculosis only increases presents an annual increase.② Region:Xuanwei City is the area with the most severe incidence of tuberculosis in Smear positive tuberculosis,and Zhanyi District is the region with the lowest incidence.The number of Smear positive tuberculosis people in other regions is declining year by year.③Crowd:oMale,lder people over the age of 60 and young people aged 20-39 are the main populations of TB disease;The top five occupations with the highest incidence of tuberculosis in Qujing are:farmers,students,workers,retired people,housework,and unemployed.3.Pearson correlation analysis of ecological factors in Qujing City shows GDP per capita,average worker’s money wage,per capita disposable income of urban residents,per capita net income of farmers,per capita consumption of urban residents,per capita consumption of rural residents,urbanization rate,urban residents The per capita housing construction area,mortality,and population density are negatively related to the incidence of tuberculosis smearing.4.forecast of the incidence and death rate of tuberculosis in Qujing City in 2030 was 2.75/100,000 and 0.01/100,000 respectively.Conclusion:1.During the ten years from 2006 to 2015,the incidence of tuberculosis in smear-positive cases in Qujing City was in a declining trend.The number of tuberculosis deaths in Qujing City has been on an upward trend since 2006 to 2013,and it has shown a rapid decline in the following two years.2.The distribution of tuberculosis in Qujing City is relatively extensive.There are diseases in all areas of the city.The key area for future prevention and control in our city is Xuanwei City,Huize County,Fuyuan County,Luliang County,Qilin District.The incidence of morbidity in Qilin District,Fuyuan County,Huize County,Zhanyi District,and Xuanwei City is declining year by year.3.Male,young and old people,and migrant workers are the main populations of tuberculosis in Qujing City.In addition,the prevalence of tuberculosis among students in Qujing City is also more prominent,suggesting that the prevention and control of tuberculosis should be strengthened.4.The level of income and expenditure of social and economic factors(per capita disposable income of urban residents,net income of farmers per capita,per capita consumption of urban residents,per capita consumption of rural residents),economic status(per capita GDP,average currency wage of employees),living conditions(Urban residents’ per capita existing housing construction area),urbanization rate,demographic indicators(mortality,population density)are all negatively related to the incidence of tuberculosis and smearing yang,suggesting that economic conditions are the main factors affecting the incidence of tuberculosis.5.By 2030,the prediction of the trend of tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Qujing City shows that the incidence of smearing and mortality are still a certain distance from the target.Such a downward trend can hardly reach the goal set by SDG. |
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