Analysis Of The Epidemiological Characteristics From 2004 To 2014 And Prediction Of Tuberculosis In Xinjiang

Objective:To analyze epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis in recent 11 years in Xinjiang and to predict the incidence trends of tuberculosis in order to provide a scientific basis for control of tuberculosis.Methods:Using descriptive epidemiology methods to statistically analyze tuberculosis date from 2004 to 2014 and ARIMA model to predict the incidence trends of tuberculosis.Results:The average incidence rate is 197.18/100000 between 2004 and2014 yesrs in Xinjiang.The highest epidemic peak was in 2005,with the incidence of 204.45/100000.The lowest peak was in 2004,with the incidence rate of 142.02/100000. From the overall situation,the incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang rose sharply in 2005, it has been maintaining a relatively high level fluctuation.But the national incidence rate had kept down slowly after going up in 2005. Compared with the whole country, Xinjiang is far higher than the national incidence of tuberculosis, which is relatively low in 2004.The tuberculosis happened throughout the year,but with highest cases of 48960 in January,and lower cases of 26434 and 27500 in September and December.There was a signifinat difference between them(?2=612.048,P<0.05).The proportions of reported cases in 12 months were: 11.73%,10.02%,10.73%,9.98%,9.12%,7.82%,7.4%,6.98%,6.33%,6.62%,6.68%,6.59%.Xinjiang could be divided into southern, northern, eastern three parts according to geographical features.The average incidence rate of 259.84/100000 between 2004 and 2014 in southern.It was been 101.8/100000 and 118.73/100000 in northern and eastern.The proportions of reported incidence cases in southern, northern and eastern were:70%,26%,4%. There was a signifinat difference between them(?2=94.914,P<0.05).The cases in age group of 60-69 years old was the hightest,and the lowest cases among people was the 0-9 years old.The cases ratio of male vs. female was 1.18:1,and there was not a signifinat difference between them(?2=1.231,P=0.267>0.05).The occupations with the highest cases was farmer of 67.38% in total,followed by retired occupation.The dynamic analysis showed that the absolutely growth rate had go up compared with 2004,but the growth rate every year from 2004 to 2014 showed that it was up in five years and was down in the other five years.The hightest growth rate was in 2005,and the lowest was in 2010.Through the stationary test,pure random testing,we find that the model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1) was very good..So this modle was used to predict the cases of tuberculosis in 2014 in Xinjiang.Conclusions:The overall incidence rate of tuberculosis in Xinjiang is much higher than the country.The trend goes up in 2005,then kept a little up and down in high-level all the time,except 2008 and 2011. There was a signifinat decreased in 2008 and 2011,then increased. The occupations with the highest cases was farmer. The highest cases of 48960 in January. The cases in age group of 60-69 years old was the hightest.The incidence of southern was higher than northern and eastern. There was not a signifinat difference between male and female.The reseach certified that ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)modle could predict the trend of tuberculosis well.