| It is China’s basic national policy to“cherish,rationally utilize and effectively protect cultivated land”,and the red line for protecting 1.8billion mu of cultivated land cannot be crossed.For a long time,the State has been implementing the strictest arable land protection policies,but there are still many problems with the use of cultivated land resources in various parts of the country,and with the imminent preparation of territorial spatial planning at all levels,it is still one of the important elements of overall land and spatial planning to reasonably determine the goals of cultivated land protection,stabilize the spatial distribution of cultivated land and strictly control the occupation of cultivated land,and reasonably delineate the red line for cultivated land.The research,based on the situation in Helingeer county of Hohhot city in Inner Mongolia,makes a prediction on the data of protection of cultivated land under three aims featuring economic development,environment and food safety.The research methods used are combined with the qualitative and quantitative analysis as well as traditional and module analysis.The research is to card the planning work of the national land and provide the scientific data for the retention of the cultivated land.Conclusions are made as following:1)In terms of characteristics of dynamic changes in cultivated land in 2009-2018.Over the ten-year period,there has been an overall increase in the amount of cultivated land in Helingeer County,with a less dynamic attitude to cultivated land use.The quality of cultivated land is gradually improving,with the proportion of cultivated land of grades 13 and 14 in the total land area increasing steadily,mostly in areas with better soil and water conditions,and the proportion of cultivated land of grade 15decreasing year by year.In terms of the flow of cultivated land,the decrease in the direction of cultivated land is mainly due to construction and agricultural restructuring,while the increase in the direction of cultivated land is mainly due to land development and consolidation.2)Influencing factors in land usage changing.The ten influence factors will be categorized as three affecting factors,by utilizing the method of main components analysis,which are the growth of population and economy as well as the development of agricultural science and technology.In particular,population growth has increased the burden on cultivated land and made its protection more difficult.The trend towards higher urbanization levels in Helingeer has generally had less impact on cropland.Steadily advancing structural reform of the agricultural supply side and continuous optimization of the breeding and farming structure have made the development of agricultural science and technology and market orientation promote changes in the flow of cultivated land.3)Prediction of population and cultivated land scale.At the end of the territorial spatial planning period in 2035,a combination of the natural growth method and the gray forecast GM(1,1)model predicted the size of the county’s population,with a total population of 217284.The supply of cultivated land in the county is projected to be 109436.30 hm~2at the rate of increase or decrease in cultivated land.Using an improved ecological footprint model,the county’s ecologically safe based farmland conservation target is predicted to be 114320.11 hm~2.Using the"minimum per capita arable land area"projection,the county’s food security-based cultivated land conservation target is 110817.84 hm~2.Using curve fitting,the county’s economic development-based cultivated land protection goal is predicted to be 97704.82 hm~2.4)Cultivated land size determination in spatial planning of the territory.Different types of scenarios were used to determine the objectives of cultivated land protection in accordance with the county’s"ecological-economic and food-oriented"strategy,giving priority to the protection of ecological security and balancing economic development and food security.The quantitative goal is set at 109290.72 hm~2 of cultivated land protection in 2035 in Helingeer County.5)In terms of the degree of achievement of cultivated land conservation goals.Comparing the quantitative target of cultivated land protection in 2035 with the 2018 status quo,the number of the latest farmland survey results and the county’s cultivated land supply in 2035,it is considered that the cultivated land protection target at the end of the planning period predicted in this paper is achievable,and also basically achieves a balanced state of cultivated land supply and demand.Finally,based on the analysis of the degree of achievement of cultivated land protection goals,countermeasures are proposed for the protection of farmland in Helingeer County. |
