Research On The Evolution Of Automobile Mobility Model In Typical Cities In China

Mobility is a key link to achieve urban activities,and its efficiency determines the overall operational efficiency of the city.The purpose of urban transportation system is to meet the needs of human mobility.However,with the increasing complexity of urban functions and the continuous accumulation of population,urban mobility is increasingly dependent on a combination of multiple modes of transportation.At the same time,most of the Chinese large cities are experiencing traffic congestion problems that have bothered many international metropolises.These cities all need to select the main means of transportation to adapt to their own urban characteristics.This study quantitatively analyzes the characteristics of typical urban mobility in China,explores the differences in road efficiency and automobile mobility model between different cities,and predicts the evolution of automobile mobility model.First of all,this research established an index system to characterize nine typical Chinese large cities.The hierarchical clustering analysis yielded four types of cities,namely “relative mature megacities” represented by Beijing,Shanghai,and Guangzhou;“roads prominent cities” represented by Shenzhen,Hangzhou,and Chengdu;Wuhan and Nanjing are the “lower travel demand cities”;the “cities with special mobility problem” represented by Chongqing.Then analysis of characters of these four types of cities was conducted.Secondly,the factors affecting the urban automobile mobility model was analyzed.The results showed that the car ownership index had a great impact on road congestion,the proportion of travels by car,and distance traveled by car;the population area index impacted most on distance traveled by car and road congestion;the rail index would account for decrease of the proportion of travels by car.Thirdly,the evolution of automobile mobility model were established based on the multiple linear regression model,and dynamic parameter hypothesis was made according to the development of different city types in three stages,which were 2020,2021?2025,2026?2030.It was found that the vehicle capacity of these cities was gradually approaching or had already reached saturation.Even in cities with high road efficiency,the rapid increase of vehicle ownership would lead to more critical congestion.Fortunately the acceleration of rail construction could alleviate or even reduce the congestion to some extent..Finally,based on the uncertainty of parameter hypothesis,different scenarios was derived.Therefore,it was recommended that we should objectively regard both the role of cars in urban mobility and its relationship with other transportation means,only then we could achive a more efficient multi-mode transportation system that can adapt to specific urban characteristics.