| At present,with the country vigorously developing infrastructure and urban rail transit construction,PPP mode has been widely practiced in order to obtain high-efficiency output and better resource allocation at low cost.This paper holds that it is particularly important to standardize the development and evaluation mechanism of PPP mode and truly realize the advantages of PPP mode instead of blindly advancing the project implementation through subjective speculation.Value for money quantitative evaluation,as an important decision-making basis and core system for adopting PPP mode,still has its drawbacks in current research and practice,and has also been questioned by numerous evaluation structures and scholars.The main reason is that although the traditional PSC-PPP method has an unshakable position in its inherent value,evaluation thinking and investment decision-making,it also has great defects in the selection of discount rate and the prediction of cash flow,so it cannot correctly consider the uncertainty of the project and the real option value,resulting in the calculated value for money will be too large.Considering that the advantages of PSC-PPP method and real option method in the value for money evaluation system should be fully combined,a value evaluation model suitable for PPP projects in China's urban rail transit should be established to further improve the value for money evaluation system in China.Based on the real option theory and value-for-money evaluation theory,this paper analyzes the characteristics of urban rail transit projects and their applicability to the real option theory,and then establishes an option pricing model for urban rail transit projects.In addition,the traditional PSC-PPP method is improved to calculate the value for money of urban rail transit PPP project based on real option value;In the empirical analysis of the application of Xi 'an Lintong subway line 9 project,By selecting appropriate model parameters,the project is finally determined to pass value-for-money evaluation.And when considering the value of real options,the evaluation results are closer to the actual value of the project,so that more accurate investment space can be obtained.Finally,through sensitivity test analysis of the underlying asset value,return volatility,risk-free interest rate and other parameters,we can obtain the degree of influence of the changes of various uncertain factors on the real option value and value for money.This investment analysis based on management flexibility can provide basis for investors to push forward the investment decision of PPP projects in urban rail transit. |
PDF Full Text Request