An EnergyPLAN Model Based Assessment On China’s Renewable Energy Penetration

According to the Paris climate change agreement,China will increase the share of non-fossil energy consumption in the total energy consumption to 20%by 2030,which is a huge challenge to China’s renewable energy development.Since the promulgation of the renewable energy law in 2006,China’s renewable energy has experienced rapid development.By the end of 2017,China’s renewable energy consumption reached 424 million tons of oil equivalent,accounting for 13.55%of total energy consumption,and non-water renewable energy generation accounted for 11.09%of total power generation.According to the national energy statistics bureau,in2017,China generated 1.7 trillion KW h of renewable energy,accounting for 28.4%of the total power generation.This means that China’s renewable energy needs to increase by 16.45%from 2017 to 2030.In terms of the current trend of renewable energy development,this goal can be realized.Based on the macro data from 1987 to 2016,this study applies the logarithmic index decomposition method to explore the driving forces for renewable energy development.An EnergyPLAN model for a cross-sectoral energy system is established for technical and economic analysis based upon different grid-connection scenarios of wind power generation and solar power generation.Finally,the research quantifies the co-benefits of wind power generation and solar power generation when they are connected to the grid by combining with the EnergyPLAN model.Research results show that since 1987,economic level has become the biggest driving force of renewable energy,but with the adjustment of China’s energy structure and the upgrading of industrial structure,economic level has changed the transmission path of renewable energy.Energy structure will gradually become the most important driving force.Meanwhile,the ideal grid connection level of future wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation are 38%and 27%respectively.When wind power is connected to the grid by 38%,1.49billion tons of CO₂,1.78 million tons of SO₂,738 million tons of NO_x and0.13 million tons of PM_2.5 can be reduced,and 12.10 million tons of water can be saved.When solar power generation reaches 27%of the total energy consumption,it can reduce CO₂ by 1.06 billion tons,SO₂ by 1.71 million tons,NO_x by 0.71 million tons and PM_2.5 0.13 million tons,and save 11.68million tons of water.