Research On Policy Evaluation Of Renewable Energy Power Generation In China

As a clean and sustainable energy source,renewable energy is an important measure to address issues such as energy security and climate change,and to realize energy transition.Subject to renewable energy technologies and costs,the development of renewable energy depends on various incentive policies.From the promulgation of the "Renewable Energy Law" to the introduction of on-grid electricity prices for renewable energy sources,China has clearly defined subsidy policies,improved the renewable energy grid-connected management system,and guaranteed the development of renewable energy in all aspects.Benefiting from a series of policies,China’s renewable energy power generation has developed rapidly,with total installed capacity ranking first in the world.However,the following problems have occurred in the implementation of these policies: the existing power operation mechanism has limited the scale development of renewable energy;the degree of policy dependency is high;renewable energy power projects have not been fully utilized.Due to these existing problems,this study comprehensively evaluates China’s renewable energy power generation policies,analyzes the causes of these problems,seeks solutions,and proposes policy recommendations.This study focuses on renewable energy power generation policies,constructs an evaluation framework from the four aspects of policy feasibility,effectiveness,efficiency,and fairness.It sorts out China’s renewable energy power generation policies,uses the content analysis method to build a policy analysis framework,and summarizes the policy history,trends and main features;analysis of the development of renewable energy power generation under existing policies;using game theory to build a market equilibrium model,and theoretical analysis of the effects of market competition mechanisms on the development of renewable energy power;using a system simulation method to build a system dynamic model under the interactions of multiple policies;drawing on the Gini coefficient,constructing policy fairness indicators,and discussing the fairness of policies in different regions.The main conclusions obtained in this article are as follows:Firstly,with the maturity of renewable energy power technology,policies will also shift from supply-based to demand-based,supplemented by environment-based.In recent years,wind power and photovoltaic power have developed rapidly.Therefore,in order to give full play to the initiative of the market and the government’s guidance,the policy has shifted to environment-based.The choice of policy tools has evolved from a single policy to a mixed policy.Supply-based and environment-based policies are widely used,accounting for nearly 80% of the total.At different stages of the project,the priorities of policies are different.Financial support is the most commonly used policy tool during the initial construction phase of a project.In the operation phase,the FIT is the most used policy instrument.Secondly,limited by resource endowment,renewable energy power development is currently concentrated in the Northwest and North China,but gradually shifted to the southeast coast.Renewable power is shifting from centralized to distributed power generation.From the perspective of power supply structure,hydropower is still the main source of renewable energy power generation at present,and PV power generation has outpaced wind power generation,but it will still account for a small proportion of power generation in the future.Introducing competition in the electricity market,we found that quantity-based and environment-based policies have a positive effect on electricity prices,while price-based policies have the opposite effect.The policy mix will have spillover effects on rising market prices.Price-based and environment-based policies promote the development of renewable energy generation,while quantity-based policies that set an unreasonable level of policies will hinder the development of renewable energy power.Thirdly,we find that the cost of unit renewable power decreases year by year.Although the investment payback period is affected by policy fluctuations,it also shows a downward trend.For distributed generation projects,the subsidy policy for renewable power is more effective than the project investment subsidy.From the perspective of system analysis,study the dynamic changes of market efficiency under the coupling of policies.The electricity market price showed a trend of rising first and then falling,and gradually decreased to zero.The green certificate price fluctuated with the demand for electricity,and the trend was consistent.In addition,the dynamic changes in renewable energy quotas not only keep the green certificate price at a stable level,but also make the installed capacity of centralized renewable energy exceed the installed capacity of traditional energy generation.The cancellation of subsidies has had an impact on the development of distributed renewable energy in the past four years,with little effect afterwards.Lastly,Although China’s wind power FITs are sorted according to wind resources,their fairness needs to be improved.The policy fairness intensity is high,and more than half of the regions are more or less higher than the standard line.Specifically,Hebei,Jilin,Hunan,Gansu,and Guangdong have been below the standard line for a long time,which indicates that the policies of these provinces are lower than the average,and the policies are weak.Generally speaking,the distribution plan is in the fair range.