Study On The Benefit Evaluation And Impact Evaluation Of Biomass Energy Output In Taiwan

Taiwan is located on the southeast coast of China,it is an island with scarce natural resources.The high degree of external energy dependence has made Taiwan face problems such as a single energy structure and low energy security.To make matters worse,the Taiwan regional government proposed a nuclear-free home plan in 2017,which is expected to shut down nuclear power plants with a total annual power generation of 18 billion k Wh by 2025.This measure will cause energy shortage problem more serious in Taiwan.According to the "Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Management Measures" promulgated by the Taiwan regional government in 2015,Taiwan will not be able to use fossil energy to make up for lost nuclear power.In order to solve the problem of energy shortage,vigorously developing renewable energy is the only way for Taiwan to ensure energy supply and sustainable development of society.About one-third of the agricultural land in Taiwan faces fallow due to fierce international agricultural product price competition.The fallow farmland provides a good foundation for the development of biomass energy.This article analyzes the development status of the biomass energy industry in Taiwan,and then uses the Taiwan agricultural sector model to evaluate biomass energy output and related socio-economic benefits,uses the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the effect of relevant factors in Taiwan.Specifically,the following research has been performed in this paper:(1)Based on welfare economics and operations research,establishing a theoretical framework for the Taiwan agricultural sector model,and use the GAMS software platform to establish an empirical model to simulate benefits of biomass energy output under Taiwan’s different climate change patterns,crop yield changes,energy prices and greenhouse gas trading prices.The results show that biomass energy production is mainly affected by the combination of energy prices and greenhouse gas prices,greenhouse gas prices have a significant impact on biomass energy production strategies.When greenhouse gas prices are low,the production of biomass energy in Taiwan is mainly ethanol gasoline;when coal prices and greenhouse gas prices rise,bioelectricity will gradually replace the production of ethanol gasoline and provide 1.58% of total electricity demand.biomass energy can only compensate part of the loss of nuclear power generation.(2)Determine the environmental and economic benefits of biomass energy througha Taiwan agricultural sector model.The results show that under the circumstances of higher electricity prices and greenhouse gas prices,greenhouse gas emission reductions can reach about 3 million tons,accounting for 1.22% of Taiwan’s total emissions;In the process of promoting the development of biomass energy,it is necessary to invest about120,000 hectares of land and 12 billion Taiwan dollars(2.79 billion yuan)in government subsidies.Overall,the development of biomass energy has certain environmental benefits but the overall impact is small and the economic cost is high.(3)This paper constructs an index system of influencing factors for biomass energy development in Taiwan,and combines the two methods of analytic hierarchy process-entropy method to determine the weight of influencing factors for biomass energy development in Taiwan.The results show that the most important influencing factors are policy factors,and the top 7 importance levels of the indicator layer are:legal support,land resources,strategic planning,income levels,market prices,resource richness,and government investment.(4)Using the revised indicator weight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the research results show that at the criterion level the evaluation result of the natural factors is “excellent”,and the market,policy,and technical factors are “good”.The results of the target layer show that the evaluation result of biomass energy development in Taiwan is "good",and the proportion of good or above is 71.1%.The prospects and conditions for the development of biomass energy industry in Taiwan are relatively optimistic.Based on the results,this paper makes the following targeted recommendations:(1)The Taiwan government should further increase subsidies for farmland conversion and simplify the application procedures for subsidies to maintain a stable supply of biomass energy raw material crops;(2)The Taiwan region should build a strategic system to encourage biomass energy companies from the perspective of laws and policies,and encourage industrial development through policy support and other means;(3)Under the premise of maintaining policy support,stabilize the price of biomass energy products,strengthen technological research and development,increase energy conversion rates,and reduce production costs for biomass energy companies.