Research On Risk Sharing Of Sponge City PPP Project Based On Improved Shapley Value

The sponge city PPP project that has emerged in recent years has the characteristics of complex construction system,diversified investment entities and diverse operation modes.These characteristics have led to the complexity of the risk and impact risk sharing of the Sponge City PPP project,which brings new challenges to the risk sharing research of the Sponge City PPP project.In addition,the development time of sponge city in China is still short.There is very little quantitative research in the risk sharing research of existing sponge city PPP projects,which makes the risk sharing result not reasonable and objective.To this end,this paper takes the Sponge City PPP project as the research object.Based on the risk sharing theory,using Shapley value method which has the advantage of quantitatively determining the risk sharing ratio.The risk sharing of PPP project in Sponge City is discussed from multiple angles and levels.The following work is completed:Firstly,this paper discusses and analyzes the research status and basic theory of Shapley value method,sponge city PPP project and PPP project risk sharing at home and abroad.Comparing the common methods of risk sharing of PPP projects,it is pointed out that these methods have the disadvantages that the assumptions are too ideal and the risk sharing factors inherent in the project are not balanced,and the exact risk sharing ratio cannot be obtained.Based on the summary of the basic theory of Shapley value method,the Shapley value method can solve the risk sharing ratio problem and is applicable to the risk sharing field of Sponge City PPP project.Secondly,this paper determines the risk sharing body of the government and project companies as the sponge city PPP project through the contract structure analysis method,and uses the literature analysis method to determine 34 risk factors of the sponge city PPP project.Risk cause analysis is used to classify the shared and non-shared risks of Sponge City PPP projects.The non-shared risks are borne by the government and the project company respectively.The risk sharing ratio of the shared risks is solved by the improved Shapley value.Thirdly,based on the risk sharing principle of PPP project,this paper constructs the index system of risk sharing influencing factors of sponge city PPP project;and using AHP-information entropy method and Shapley value method.By calculating the initial Shapley value,determining the weight of the influencing factor index,calculating the risk factor measurement value,determining the risk improvement factor,and correcting the initial Shapley value,the risk sharing model of the sponge city PPP project based on the improved Shapley value is constructed.The model results were theoretically analyzed.Finally,this paper uses the established model to conduct a case study of the Sponge City PPP project in Zhenjiang City,Jiangsu Province;the case analysis shows that the risk of project preparation is borne by the government;the operational risk,the risk of handover,etc.are assumed by the project company;force majeure risk,inflation Risk and interest rate risk need to be shared by the government and the project company.It is concluded that the risk sharing ratio between the government and the project company is 33.97% and 66.03% after the risk-sharing factors are improved under a force majeure risk.In addition,the weights of the improved Shapley value and risk sharing influencing factors in the process of obtaining the model results are discussed,and the proposals for contract formulation and project implementation are proposed.Based on the risk of PPP project and the risk sharing of PPP project,this paper establishes a complete risk sharing model based on Shapley value improvement for Sponge City PPP project based on risk sharing theory and Shapley value method,and is based in Zhenjiang City,Jiangsu Province.The Sponge City PPP project has been studied in detail for an example.Relevant research results will provide some new ideas and inspirations for the theory and case study of risk sharing of PPP projects in China's sponge city.