A Study On The Influencing Factors And Moderate Scale Of Private Car Ownership In Hebei Province

Since 2009,China has been the world's top auto producer and seller for the last 10 years in a row.Private car consumption has become the mainstream,Hebei province as an important car production base,its possession has already exceeded 10 million.With the advancement of urbanization,the government and people are very concerned about whether the car market is saturated,whether private car ownership reaches a moderate scale,and whether there is still room for future development of the automobile industry.Therefore,analyzing the status of private car ownership in Hebei province,finding out the factors affecting private car ownership and scientifically measuring its moderate scale is not only of theoretical significance to the research of enriching the car ownership,but also of practical significance to promoting the popularization of cars,solving the contradiction between supply and demand and promoting social harmony.This paper has done the following work:First,the evaluation index system of influencing factors of private car ownership is constructed.On the basis of relevant theories and principles,It has established a five-pronged evaluation index system covering 29 indicators,namely,population structure,economy and society,resources and environment,transportation and macro policies.Secondly,identify data sources,the development status of automobile industry in Hebei province is analyzed statistically.The per capita GDP grows steadily,the automobile consumption accelerates,and the automobile industry is in the upper middle position in China;Growth in private car ownership is slowing;The rise of new energy vehicles;The penetration rate of household automobiles in urban and rural areas increased substantially;Traffic jams are becoming more prominent.Thirdly,the factors affecting private car ownership in Hebei province are analyzed by using grey correlation.First of all,using the grey correlation analysis method to explore the quantitative index of 25 to the influence degree of the private car ownership,it is found that the "population structure" impact strength of the weakest,the "economic and society" impact strength of the strongest,steel plays the biggest role in the "resource and environment",factor of the "transportation" correlation was the most significant.Then,according to the qualitative analysis of four aspects of macro policy,it is found that it has played a positive role in guiding automobile consumption.Fourthly,the DEA model is used to analyze the moderate scale of private car ownership in Hebei province.First,the grey relational-AHP and entropy method are used to combine the weights,and the first level "comprehensive index" is obtained.Secondly,an "output oriented" BBC-DEA model is established from the two aspects of main influencing factors and comprehensive indicators.Through comparative analysis,it is found that private car ownership in Hebei province is not in a moderate scale.The three comprehensive indicators of population structure,economy and society,resources and environment all have redundant inputs,and the private car ownership has insufficient output.In a comprehensive sense,influenced by various social factors,the private car ownership in Hebei province is not in a moderate scale.With the social stability to good progress,the automobile market will burst into new vigor and vitality.