Application Of Grey System Theory In Road Traffic Accident Analysis

Road traffic accidents not only cause huge economic property losses,but also seriously threaten people's lives.Road traffic accident analysis can provide an auxiliary decision-making basis for preventing and reducing road traffic accidents.The road traffic system is a gray system with “partial information is known and some information is unknown”,which can be studied using the grey system theory.This paper first explains the background,research purpose and significance of the topic,analyzes the research status at home and abroad,and combs the current research status of the gray system theory in the analysis of road traffic accidents,and finds that the research method is based on the gray correlation analysis model.The calculation of degree mainly selects the Deng's relevance degree proposed by Professor Deng Julong.Since it does not consider the degree of fluctuation of the correlation coefficient,this paper chooses the comprehensive correlation degree for gray correlation analysis.In the research content,there is little research on accident morphology.Therefore,this paper focuses on the related research on the form of road traffic accidents.Secondly,it introduces the theory,road traffic accident related theory,content and method of road traffic accident analysis,and points out the direction for research.Thirdly,the application of grey system theory in road traffic accident analysis is discussed.The gray correlation analysis model and grey cluster evaluation model are applied to the analysis of road traffic accidents.Finally,a case study was conducted in Shenzhen City as an example.Based on the gray correlation analysis,the road traffic accident and socio-economic factors analysis case study found that road area,road freight volume,road freight turnover,and highway passenger traffic are the main social and economic factors affecting road traffic safety in Shenzhen,and the road area is optimal.factor.Strengthening the comprehensive traffic safety management and refined management of existing stock roads is the focus of Shenzhen's future road traffic safety management.Based on the gray clustering assessment of road traffic accidents,the accident pattern is divided into four grades of grade A,grade B,grade C and class D according to the severity.The results show that: rollover,occupant drop or throw,crush pedestrians,others belong to Class A ash;after collision,crush pedestrians belong to Class B ash;collision stationary vehicles,collision fixtures belong to Class C ash;collision sports vehicles The scratching pedestrian belongs to the class D gray class.Based on the gray clustering assessment,the road traffic accident causal analysis case study found that the pedestrians are not avoiding when crossing the crosswalk,there are other obstacles to safe driving when driving,driving,driving,and not keeping the car in the same lane.The necessary safety distance and non-motor vehicle violations are the main causes of road traffic accidents affecting C and D roads.