Seismic Vulnerability Analysis And Economic Loss Assessment Of Substations

With the continuous advancement of urbanization and modernization in China,the power system providing energy for the operation of urban infrastructure is becoming increasingly important.As an important node of the power system,once the substation fails or is destroyed,it will cause power system outage and huge disasters and economic losses.In our country,earthquake is one of the most destructive sudden disasters,and its potential risk of serious damage to substations is extremely high.Based on the Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Provinceand and the National Key Technology R&D Project achievement,this paper systematically studied the methods and models for seismic vulnerability analysis and economic loss assessment of substations in China.The corresponding module was developed in the China Seismic Disaster Damage Assessment System(CEDLAS),which was developed by the research group,and the rationality of the theoretical model was verified by the calculation results of the software program.This study can provide reference for the construction of disaster prevention and mitigation of power system and the rapid assessment of post-earthquake losses in China.The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)In order to establish the numerical models of substation structure more scientifically and reasonably,this paper introduced the concept and design process of typical structure,and considered the interaction influence of structure and electric equipment,then established a series of typical substation structures with different voltage levels and different fortification intensity.;Compared with the traditional model considering the influence of equipment in the form of equivalent load,the finite element model adopted in this paper is more reasonable.;The validity of the method was verified by comparing the dynamic time history analysis of Abaqus finite element model established in the same way.(2)To study the seismic vulnerability of different substation structures in China,based on the finite element model established in the previous paper,incremental dynamic analysis of substation structures with different voltage levels and different fortification intensity was carried out,and the corresponding probabilistic seismic demand model was obtained;By considering the uncertainty factors,combining with the limit value division of each limit failure state and the results of probabilistic seismic demand analysis,the seismic vulnerability analysis wss carried out,and the seismic vulnerability curves were obtained;By analyzing the probabilistic damage matrix,the regularity of different failure states of structures under different earthquake ground motions was revealed.(3)In order to accurately analyze the damage and loss of electrical equipment in earthquake disaster,based on the seismic damage data of Sichuan power grid in Wenchuan earthquake,the seismic vulnerability analysis of various types of high voltage electrical equipment in substation was carried out by empirical statistical analysis method.Through the comparative analysis of the vulnerability of different equipment,the vulnerability curves and failure probability density curves of transformer and electromagnetic electrical equipment based on peak ground acceleration were obtained.(4)This paper put forward a model for evaluating the economic losses of substations in China,and determined the parameters of the model by studying a large number of literatures at home and abroad;Based on the China Earthquake Disaster Loss Assessment System(CEDLAS)developed by our research group,the economic loss assessment module of substation earthquake disaster was developed by plug-in technology,and the GIS visualization of the assessment function was realized;Selecting the earthquake in Huaxian County,Shaanxi Province,which has a great influence in history,the seismic hazard analysis was carried out in the urban area of Xi'an,and the earthquake disaster and economic loss of the substation of medium-voltage power network were demonstrated.The evaluation results were compared with the earthquake damage data of Sichuan power grid in Wenchuan earthquake,and the rationality and scientificity of the evaluation model were verified.The achievements can provide a reference for the pre-earthquake prediction and post-earthquake loss assessment of substations.