Future Earthquake Loss Evaluation Of Existing Structures

Earthquake is a kind of ubiquitous disasters which usually cause catastrophic loss. The seismic performance of existing structures would degrade due to circumstance and other reasons. In order to evaluate earthquake loss exactly, economic loss and casualty of existing structures caused by earthquake must be studied.With the improvement of earthquake disaster reduction technology, hazard analysis on major factor of earthquake loss (seismic hazard, vulnerability, economic status) and loss prediction are be required urgently. First, in view of the earthquake action for assessment of existing structures in re-service term, hysteretic model of corroded members is introduced to earthquake damage prediction based on reliability theory. Accordingly earthquake damage prediction of existing RC structures is proposed to lay the foundation of loss evaluation. Secondly, grounded on total probability formula, probability prediction model of future earthquake loss is constructed. Thirdly, seismic loss is divided into economic loss and casualty. Moreover economic loss is separated into direct loss and indirect loss. Direct economic loss of buildings and lifeline engineering is introduced in detail. Supposed that post-earthquake rehibilitation accords with linearity, loss model due to stop and reduction of output is proposed. The loss due to the linkage of the sectors is evaluated by using input-output model. Cost of investment premium is introduced. Fourthly, inflation and deflation are considered by synthetical discount coefficient. Finally, research on casualty home and outside is reviewed. Based on the state-function of casualty, the dynamic method for assessing seismic casualties is introduced. Using this method, seismic casualties of Tangshan earthquake are reevaluated and the results are compared with the actual investigation.