Forecast And Evaluation Of Aviation Volume Of Air Traffic Control Engineering For The Second Runway Expansion Of Civil Airport

With the rapid growth of science and technology and the economy,the world’s air transport volume has continued to increase,and China’s civil aviation industry has also entered a stage of rapid development.When the original single runway of an airport cannot keep up with the development trend of airport aviation traffic in the future,it is necessary to consider expanding the second runway.Expansion of the second runway requires simultaneous expansion and upgrade of the airport’s civil aviation management project,so the near-term and long-term development and planning of the air traffic control project should be considered together.The premise and basis of the construction planning and economic benefit analysis of air traffic control engineering is the forecast of aviation traffic.The forecast of aviation traffic can provide scientific decisions and scientific plans for air traffic management scheduling.The accuracy of forecast will directly affect the construction of the airport.scale.This thesis was based on the air traffic control engineering for the second runway expansion of Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport and Wuhan Tianhe International Airport by using the aviation volume record data from 1999 to 2009.It uses the two prediction methods of trend extrapolation method and quadratic exponential smoothing method to compare and analyze the results of aviation volume forecast in the near and long term,respectively.And draw the following conclusions:(1)Take the air traffic forecast results in the next ten years for comparison,and the recent air traffic forecast results of the trend extrapolation method and the second exponential smoothing method are basically similar,indicating that both methods have forecast effectiveness.It is suggested that these two methods can be used for forecasting in the near future to improve accuracy and reduce errors;(2)By comparing the forecast results of the aviation business volume in the next 30 years,it can be found that the forecast results of the trend extrapolation method show an upward trend in the long-term stage,and the forecast data also has common sense errors.In contrast,the prediction result of the second exponential smoothing method is relatively smooth,and it is in line with the actual status of civil aviation development.It is recommended to use the second exponential smoothing method in the long-term forecast.The forecast results of aviation traffic predicted by this thesis provide support and basis for the construction of the air traffic control engineering for the second runway expansion of Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport and Wuhan Tianhe International Airport.At the same time,this project evaluated the necessity and economic benefits of the construction of the air traffic control engineering for the second runway expansion of civil airports.Through scientific and reasonable prediction and evaluation analysis,it will provide a reference for the construction of the second runway air traffic control project in other similar types of civil airports.