The Economic Evaluation And Risk Management Of The Payment Of Subway Construction Project

Subway construction projects have the characteristics of large project investment,long construction period,and large number of participating parties.For the contractor,the receipt and expenditure of construction funds is an important part of the contractor’s fund management.Although the construction contract clearly stipulates the contract elements such as the payment method,payment conditions,payment time,and payment amount of the project,the owner will always have insufficient payment or delayed payment during the actual payment.Among them,there is no lack of technical delays by the owner.The owner cannot pay the project money in full and on time,and the contractor loses the time value of the fund,especially when the contractor has advanced funds.Considering the time value of the funds,the contractor’s project revenue and expenditure,from a static perspective,some subway projects often seem to be profitable;but from a dynamic perspective,they are actually losing money.Therefore,it is very necessary to carry out economic evaluation on the payment of engineering funds for subway construction projects.Obviously,there is a certain degree of uncertainty in the actual revenue and expenditure of the project compared with the contract,that is,the risk.It is necessary for the contractor to perform a risk assessment of the revenue and expenditure of the subway project before and after bidding in order to avoid risks and reduce funds as soon as possible Loss of time value,realizing project profitability.Based on the perspective of the general contractor and considering the time value of funds during the construction period,this paper constructs the calculation model of NPV under the project payment on schedule mode and NPV under the project payment delay mode respectively,and studies the maximum acceptable time length of project payment delay based on the decision of NPV target.Based on the risk assessment of delayed payment of metro construction project from the perspective of the contractor,this paper uses the method of catastrophe progression to evaluate the impact of risk factors on the payment of project funds,analyzes the risk factors of delayed payment of project funds at multiple levels,constructs 4 secondary risk indicators,11 tertiary indicators,27 quaternary indicators,and calculates them step by step according to the catastrophe relationship between risk factors The total catastrophe progression model of delayed payment risk of project funds is obtained.Finally,taking a bid section of Nanchang Metro Line 2 as an example,the paper first calculates that the average net present value of the project payment delayed by two months is 4.0444 million yuan less than that of the project payment delayed on schedule,and then calculates that the longest delay payment time acceptable to the construction unit is 22 months.Furthermore,the risk of delayed payment of project funds is identified,the risk assessment model is constructed by using catastrophe level method,and the risk level of delayed payment of project funds is quantitatively analyzed.By calculating the catastrophe value of delayed payment of project funds in a bid section of Nanchang Metro is 0.970,and the catastrophe value after conversion is 0.6,the total risk of delayed payment of project funds belongs to medium level risk.In this paper,the time value of funds is introduced into the income and expenditure of project funds in the construction period,and the situation of income and expenditure of project funds is evaluated dynamically,which makes up for the deficiency of the traditional evaluation of income and expenditure of project funds in the subway construction project,and establishes the risk evaluation model of income and expenditure of project funds in the construction period.The research of this paper provides a more scientific way for the contractor to evaluate the revenue and expenditure and profit of the project funds,and also provides a new idea for the contractor to better manage the risk of the revenue and expenditure of the project funds.