| Shandong province is a big agricultural province,"less water" is the basic condition of Shandong province,Shandong is short of water resources,and the waste of agricultural irrigation water is very serious.As resources and environmental conditions vary widely in different regions,technological development needs to be adapted to local conditions and appropriately innovated.Agricultural water-saving zoning is an important method for scientific classification of agricultural water-saving layout,which divides the spatial distribution and allocation of agricultural water-saving according to the law of agricultural regional differences and factors such as climate,natural resources,social economy and scientific and technological development.Agricultural water-saving zones can promote the efficient use of regional water resources and are one of the effective methods to alleviate the shortage of agricultural water.This paper to change the environment the influence factors of agricultural water saving in Shandong province were analyzed,and according to the Shandong province of natural geography,climate,hydrology,social economy and agricultural structure,the construction of agricultural water saving zoning index system based on PSR model,using the principal component analysis and cluster analysis in Shandong province can be divided into six agricultural water saving zoning,and put forward constructive Suggestions on the development of each partition agricultural water saving,in the end,according to the actual situation of agricultural water saving in Shandong province,put forward a set of suitable agricultural water saving comprehensive evaluation model,taking Weishan irrigation area as an example to validate feasibility of the model.Specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)based on changes in the environment under the influence of climate change and human activities in Shandong province land use change and the changes of supply and demand of water resources analysis,reveals the change of environment in Shandong province agriculture water saving problem and challenge,agricultural water saving is not only influenced by human activity factors are under the influence of the climate change at the same time,in order to better grasp around the city of Shandong province administrative unit favorable and unfavorable factors of agricultural water saving development,further determine the regional agricultural water-saving measures reasonably,it is necessary from climate condition,the condition of water resources,social economic factors,etc.,for agricultural water saving zoning of Shandong province.(2)through the comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of various partitioning methods and the degree of data mastery,the main research method of this study is finally determined to be the systematic clustering partitioning method combined with principal component analysis.And based on PSR model from climate condition,the condition of water resources,and other aspects of social and economic factors,constructed to dryness,topography influence coefficient,the per capita GDP,the degree of water shortage,available quantity of irrigation,agricultural water and soil resources matching coefficient,the proportion of agricultural water supply,crop water requirement,authors effective evaluation of arable land and food production,food crops seeding rate,vegetable planting,other crops planting,watersaving irrigation,ratio,and the proportions of the water diversion irrigation,water irrigation,the proportions of the well irrigation,water irrigation 18 indexes of agricultural water saving zoning index system of evaluation index system.(3)through SPSS software,the principal component analysis method was used to conduct dimensionality reduction treatment for 18 indexes in the established partition index system,and finally,5 indexes of principal component were determined to represent the original indexes,effectively reducing the calculation and eliminating the correlation among indexes.The clustering method is used to calculate the partition of each partition unit.The principal component index is analyzed and calculated by means of the barycenter method,the average chain method,the shortest distance method and the deviation balancing method,and the genealogy chart is drawn respectively.Through the comparative analysis of the calculated results,it is concluded that the distance between the result samples obtained by the method of dispersion is small,and the distance between classes is large,so it is considered that the result obtained by the method of dispersion is more reasonable.Finally,the units in Shandong province are divided into six units.By analyzing the actual situation of each district,the paper describes each district and puts forward the preliminary conception of its agricultural water saving method.(4)in combination with the practical situation of Shandong province,and puts forward the comprehensive evaluation index system of water-saving agriculture,agricultural water-saving fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established,using expert scoring method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)is applied in determining weights of indicators at all levels,the combination of subjective and objective,to overcome the past on the weight of subjective arbitrariness and difficult to accurately determine the shortcomings,accord with the actual situation of agricultural production,has a good practicability.The proposed model is simple and applicable to the comprehensive evaluation of agricultural water-saving in Shandong province. |
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