Research On Analytical Models For Determining The Waiting Time Of Passengers Of Public Transportation In The Cities

The dissertation is devoted to solving the scientifically applied problem,which consists in the development of analytical dependences of calculation the duration of the waiting time for passengers of route transport in the city,for the case when the passenger does not know the exact time of arrival of the vehicle at a stopping point.The analytical dependencies obtained are the theoretical basis for assessing the efficiency of the operation of city route networks in general,and in particular,allow to quantify measures aimed at shortening the waiting phase during commuting by passengers.The purpose of the dissertation is to find the waiting time for passengers of urban public transport for various technologies for organization the operation of vehicles.To achieve this goal it is necessary to solve the following problems:-to analyze the state of the problem of determining the passengers’waiting time for route vehicles at stopping points;-formalize all existing technologies for organization the operation of vehicles on routes;-to develop theoretical dependencies of determining the passengers’ waiting time for route vehicles on a separate route and the city’s route network as a whole;-to develop a methodology,to carry out a survey and to calculate the average value of the passengers’ waiting time for route vehicles at the stopping points of city routes with the known timetable for the movement of vehicles;-to develop simulation models and carry out experimental studies to determine the passengers’ waiting time for route vehicles at city stops for various technologies for organization the operation of vehicles-to calculate possible changes in the passengers’ waiting time for route vehicles during the transition of urban passenger transport to work on a constant schedule of traffic with a high level of information provision of passengers.During the development of the theoretical bases for estimating the passengers’ waiting time for route vehicles,the methods of probability theory and analytical modeling were used.In the process of constructing simulation models,induction,regression analysis,methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics were applied.An empirical survey method was used to determine the parameters of public transport on urban routes and to study the actual passengers’waiting time for route vehicles at stopping points.Experimental verification is a series of experiments,each of which determines the waiting time of 300 passengers during the morning rush period.The number of such series of experiments for each passenger service variant is also taken to be 300,and the random average accumulated waiting times are used to verify the adequacy of the theoretical models.The theoretical model is considered to be accurate if the distribution of deviations of the obtained mean values from the theoretical mean is normal,with a mathematical expectation close to zero.The average deviation of the experimental values from the theoretical values did not exceed 0.1 min.X2P>5%,which confirmed the adequacy of the theoretical models constructed and the possibility to use them to estimate the average waiting time for passengers on the route network in general.A special survey was conducted during the 15 working days on 10 city routes of Kharkiv to determine the actual passenger waiting time for vehicles at city bus stops,when they are aware of the schedule of traffic on the route.As a result,594 empirical values of the waiting time were obtained,the average value of which according to the survey results was 5.72 min.It is determined that the waiting time for these conditions is distributed according to the exponential distribution law with probability criterion χ2 P=7%.On the basis of the developed analytical dependence,the average waiting time of passengers for vehicles by interval service technology for the morning peak period is determined,which according to the results of the calculation is 9.9 minutes,which is significantly higher than the similar indicator for passengers who are know the timetable on the routes.The main tasks in the transition from interval technology to the technology of servicing public transport passengers on the timetable are,firstly,the proper organization of the operation of passenger route vehicles with adherence to the pre-established timetable on routes and,secondly,the organization of an effective system of dissemination of information about the timetable,which will ensure a high level of familiarization with passengers.